Evidence of the effect of primary care expansion on hospitalizations: Panel analysis of 143 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND: The Family Health Strategy (FHS) became consolidated as a primary care model and gatekeeper for the Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde, SUS) in the Brazil and it is considered one of the largest primary health care programmes in the world. Its rapid expansion allowed the SUS to meet the changing health care needs of the population remote localities of Brazilian municipalities. METHODS: In the present study, exploratory data analysis was performed using modelling to provide a general overview of the study and to delineate possible structural characteristics of the cross-sectional time-series data. Panel regression methods were used to assess the association between FHS coverage and ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations (ACSH rates) in the municipalities of Pará, in the Brazilian Amazon, from 2008 to 2017. RESULTS: The results showed strong evidence for the association between FHS coverage and ACSH rates, including reductions of 22% in preventable hospitalizations and 15% in hospital expenses that were directly linked to the 40% increase in FHS population coverage during the evaluated period. This expansion of primary care has mainly benefitted areas that are difficult to access and populations that were previously deprived of health care in the vast Amazon territory. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study show that the increase of the expansion of primary care reduces the preventable hospitalization and the hospital expenses. This reinforces the need for public protection of the health of populations at risk and the positive impacts of primary care in the Brazilian Amazon.