Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this wa...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gehringer, Agnieszka, Mayer, Thomas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2021
Materias:
Research Paper
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8032852/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41549-021-00054-6
Descripción
Sumario:This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.

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