Reducing the uncertainty on chilling requirements for endodormancy breaking of temperate fruits by data-based parameter estimation of the dynamic model: a test case in apricot

The Dynamic model has been described as one of the most accurate models to quantify chill accumulation based on hourly temperatures in nuts and temperate fruits. This model considers that a dynamic process occurs at a biochemical level that determines the endodormancy breaking through the accumulation of the so-called portions. The kinetic parameters present in the model should reflect how the fruit trees integrate chilling exposure and thus they should be characteristic for each species. However, the original parameter values, reported in the late 1980s, are still being used. Even if the use of such parameter values is useful to compare among chilling requirements (CRs) for different species or cultivars, it is not the optimal choice when one intends to explain the CR variations in different years for a given cultivar. In this work we propose a data-based model calibration that makes use of phenological data for different apricot cultivars within different years to obtain model parameters, which minimize the variations among years and that have, at the same time, physical meaning to characterize the incumbent species. Results reveal that the estimation not only reduces the accumulated portion dispersion within the considered time periods but also allows to improve the CR predictions for subsequent years. We propose a set of model parameter values to predict endodormancy breaking dates in the apricot cultivars studied here.