The usefulness of a trauma probability of survival model for forensic life-threatening danger assessments

Clinical forensic medical examinations constitute an increasing proportion of our institution’s tasks, and, concomitantly, the authorities are now requesting forensic life-threatening danger assessments based on our examinations. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess if a probability of survival (PS) trauma score could be useful for these forensic life-threatening danger assessments and to identify a cut-off PS score as a supporting tool for the forensic practice of assessing life-threatening danger. We compared a forensic database and a trauma database and identified 161 individuals (aged 15 years or older) who had both a forensic life-threatening danger assessment and a PS score. The life-threatening danger assessments comprised the following statements: was not in life-threatening danger (NLD); could have been in life-threatening danger (CLD); or was in life-threatening danger (LD). The inclusion period was 2012–2016. A statistically significant difference was found in the PS scores between NLD, CLD and LD (chi-square test: p < 0.0001). The usefulness of the PS score for categorizing life-threatening danger assessments was determined by a receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. The area under the curve was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.84) and the ROC curve revealed that a cut-off PS score of 95.8 would appropriately identify LD. Therefore, a PS score below 95.8 would indicate life-threatening danger. We propose a further exploration of how the evidence-based PS score, including a cut-off value, might be implemented in clinical forensic medical statements to add to the scientific strength of these statements.