A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data

A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equa...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bonifazi, Gianluca, Lista, Luca, Menasce, Dario, Mezzetto, Mauro, Pedrini, Daniele, Spighi, Roberto, Zoccoli, Antonio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021
Materias:
Regular Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8036245/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33868891
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6
Descripción
Sumario:A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.

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