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A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equa...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8036245/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33868891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6 |
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author | Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio |
author_facet | Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio |
author_sort | Bonifazi, Gianluca |
collection | PubMed |
description | A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8036245 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80362452021-04-12 A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio Eur Phys J Plus Regular Article A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-04-11 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8036245/ /pubmed/33868891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Regular Article Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data |
title | A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data |
title_full | A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data |
title_fullStr | A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data |
title_full_unstemmed | A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data |
title_short | A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data |
title_sort | simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to italian covid-19 data |
topic | Regular Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8036245/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33868891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6 |
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