A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data

A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equa...

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Autores principales: Bonifazi, Gianluca, Lista, Luca, Menasce, Dario, Mezzetto, Mauro, Pedrini, Daniele, Spighi, Roberto, Zoccoli, Antonio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021
Materias:
Regular Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8036245/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33868891
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6
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author Bonifazi, Gianluca
Lista, Luca
Menasce, Dario
Mezzetto, Mauro
Pedrini, Daniele
Spighi, Roberto
Zoccoli, Antonio
author_facet Bonifazi, Gianluca
Lista, Luca
Menasce, Dario
Mezzetto, Mauro
Pedrini, Daniele
Spighi, Roberto
Zoccoli, Antonio
author_sort Bonifazi, Gianluca
collection PubMed
description A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.
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spelling pubmed-80362452021-04-12 A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio Eur Phys J Plus Regular Article A simplified method to compute [Formula: see text] , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of [Formula: see text] to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition [Formula: see text] corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-04-11 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8036245/ /pubmed/33868891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Regular Article
Bonifazi, Gianluca
Lista, Luca
Menasce, Dario
Mezzetto, Mauro
Pedrini, Daniele
Spighi, Roberto
Zoccoli, Antonio
A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
title A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
title_full A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
title_fullStr A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
title_full_unstemmed A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
title_short A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
title_sort simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number [formula: see text] using its relation with the doubling time and application to italian covid-19 data
topic Regular Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8036245/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33868891
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6
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