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Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate

Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol....

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Autores principales: Wurman, Joshua, Kosiba, Karen, White, Trevor, Robinson, Paul
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040662/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33753558
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021535118
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author Wurman, Joshua
Kosiba, Karen
White, Trevor
Robinson, Paul
author_facet Wurman, Joshua
Kosiba, Karen
White, Trevor
Robinson, Paul
author_sort Wurman, Joshua
collection PubMed
description Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 641–653 (2013)]. It has long been suspected that these suffer low bias [C. A. Doswell, D. W. Burgess, Mon. Weather Rev. 116, 495–501 (1988)]. Here, using mapping of low-level tornado winds in 120 tornadoes, we prove that supercell tornadoes are typically much stronger and wider than damage surveys indicate. Our results permit an accurate assessment of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes and tornado wind hazards, based on actual wind-speed observations, and meaningful comparisons of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes with theoretical predictions. We analyze data from Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radar measurements of 120 tornadoes at the time of peak measured intensity. In striking contrast to conventional damage-based climatologies, median tornado peak wind speeds are ∼60 m⋅s(−1), capable of causing significant, Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF)-2 to -3, damage, and 20% are capable of the most intense EF-4/EF-5 damage. National Weather Service (NWS) EF/wind speed ratings are 1.2 to 1.5 categories (∼20 m⋅s(−1)) lower than DOW observations for tornadoes documented by both the NWS and DOWs. Median tornado diameter is 250 to 500 m, with 10 to 15% >1 km. Wind engineering tornado-hazard-model predictions and building wind resistance standards may require upward adjustment due to the increased wind-damage risk documented here.
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spelling pubmed-80406622021-04-20 Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate Wurman, Joshua Kosiba, Karen White, Trevor Robinson, Paul Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 641–653 (2013)]. It has long been suspected that these suffer low bias [C. A. Doswell, D. W. Burgess, Mon. Weather Rev. 116, 495–501 (1988)]. Here, using mapping of low-level tornado winds in 120 tornadoes, we prove that supercell tornadoes are typically much stronger and wider than damage surveys indicate. Our results permit an accurate assessment of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes and tornado wind hazards, based on actual wind-speed observations, and meaningful comparisons of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes with theoretical predictions. We analyze data from Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radar measurements of 120 tornadoes at the time of peak measured intensity. In striking contrast to conventional damage-based climatologies, median tornado peak wind speeds are ∼60 m⋅s(−1), capable of causing significant, Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF)-2 to -3, damage, and 20% are capable of the most intense EF-4/EF-5 damage. National Weather Service (NWS) EF/wind speed ratings are 1.2 to 1.5 categories (∼20 m⋅s(−1)) lower than DOW observations for tornadoes documented by both the NWS and DOWs. Median tornado diameter is 250 to 500 m, with 10 to 15% >1 km. Wind engineering tornado-hazard-model predictions and building wind resistance standards may require upward adjustment due to the increased wind-damage risk documented here. National Academy of Sciences 2021-04-06 2021-03-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8040662/ /pubmed/33753558 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021535118 Text en Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Physical Sciences
Wurman, Joshua
Kosiba, Karen
White, Trevor
Robinson, Paul
Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
title Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
title_full Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
title_fullStr Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
title_full_unstemmed Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
title_short Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
title_sort supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
topic Physical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040662/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33753558
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021535118
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