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Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate
Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol....
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040662/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33753558 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021535118 |
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author | Wurman, Joshua Kosiba, Karen White, Trevor Robinson, Paul |
author_facet | Wurman, Joshua Kosiba, Karen White, Trevor Robinson, Paul |
author_sort | Wurman, Joshua |
collection | PubMed |
description | Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 641–653 (2013)]. It has long been suspected that these suffer low bias [C. A. Doswell, D. W. Burgess, Mon. Weather Rev. 116, 495–501 (1988)]. Here, using mapping of low-level tornado winds in 120 tornadoes, we prove that supercell tornadoes are typically much stronger and wider than damage surveys indicate. Our results permit an accurate assessment of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes and tornado wind hazards, based on actual wind-speed observations, and meaningful comparisons of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes with theoretical predictions. We analyze data from Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radar measurements of 120 tornadoes at the time of peak measured intensity. In striking contrast to conventional damage-based climatologies, median tornado peak wind speeds are ∼60 m⋅s(−1), capable of causing significant, Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF)-2 to -3, damage, and 20% are capable of the most intense EF-4/EF-5 damage. National Weather Service (NWS) EF/wind speed ratings are 1.2 to 1.5 categories (∼20 m⋅s(−1)) lower than DOW observations for tornadoes documented by both the NWS and DOWs. Median tornado diameter is 250 to 500 m, with 10 to 15% >1 km. Wind engineering tornado-hazard-model predictions and building wind resistance standards may require upward adjustment due to the increased wind-damage risk documented here. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8040662 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80406622021-04-20 Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate Wurman, Joshua Kosiba, Karen White, Trevor Robinson, Paul Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 641–653 (2013)]. It has long been suspected that these suffer low bias [C. A. Doswell, D. W. Burgess, Mon. Weather Rev. 116, 495–501 (1988)]. Here, using mapping of low-level tornado winds in 120 tornadoes, we prove that supercell tornadoes are typically much stronger and wider than damage surveys indicate. Our results permit an accurate assessment of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes and tornado wind hazards, based on actual wind-speed observations, and meaningful comparisons of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes with theoretical predictions. We analyze data from Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radar measurements of 120 tornadoes at the time of peak measured intensity. In striking contrast to conventional damage-based climatologies, median tornado peak wind speeds are ∼60 m⋅s(−1), capable of causing significant, Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF)-2 to -3, damage, and 20% are capable of the most intense EF-4/EF-5 damage. National Weather Service (NWS) EF/wind speed ratings are 1.2 to 1.5 categories (∼20 m⋅s(−1)) lower than DOW observations for tornadoes documented by both the NWS and DOWs. Median tornado diameter is 250 to 500 m, with 10 to 15% >1 km. Wind engineering tornado-hazard-model predictions and building wind resistance standards may require upward adjustment due to the increased wind-damage risk documented here. National Academy of Sciences 2021-04-06 2021-03-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8040662/ /pubmed/33753558 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021535118 Text en Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Physical Sciences Wurman, Joshua Kosiba, Karen White, Trevor Robinson, Paul Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate |
title | Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate |
title_full | Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate |
title_fullStr | Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate |
title_full_unstemmed | Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate |
title_short | Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate |
title_sort | supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate |
topic | Physical Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040662/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33753558 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021535118 |
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