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Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans

Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to...

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Autores principales: Rodrigues, Mónica, Santana, Paula, Rocha, Alfredo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040763/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33844122
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z
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author Rodrigues, Mónica
Santana, Paula
Rocha, Alfredo
author_facet Rodrigues, Mónica
Santana, Paula
Rocha, Alfredo
author_sort Rodrigues, Mónica
collection PubMed
description Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to estimate and assess the health burden of temperature-attributable mortality among age groups (0–64 years; 65–74 years; 75–84 years; and 85+ years) in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, from 1986–2015. Non-linear and delayed exposure–lag–response relationships between temperature and mortality were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). In general, the adverse effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality were greater in the older age groups, presenting a higher risk during the winter season. We found that, for all ages, 10.7% (95% CI: 9.3–12.1%) deaths were attributed to cold temperatures in the winter, and mostly due to moderately cold temperatures, 7.0% (95% CI: 6.2–7.8%), against extremely cold temperatures, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9–1.8%). When stratified by age, people aged 85+ years were more burdened by cold temperatures (13.8%, 95% CI: 11.5–16.0%). However, for all ages, 5.6% of deaths (95% CI: 2.7–8.4%) can be attributed to hot temperatures. It was observed that the proportion of deaths attributed to exposure to extreme heat is higher than moderate heat. As with cold temperatures, people aged 85+ years are the most vulnerable age group to heat, 8.4% (95% CI: 3.9%, 2.7%), and mostly due to extreme heat, 1.3% (95% CI: 0.8–1.8%). These results provide new evidence on the health burdens associated with alert thresholds, and they can be used in early warning systems and adaptation plans. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z.
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spelling pubmed-80407632021-04-13 Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo J Urban Health Article Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to estimate and assess the health burden of temperature-attributable mortality among age groups (0–64 years; 65–74 years; 75–84 years; and 85+ years) in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, from 1986–2015. Non-linear and delayed exposure–lag–response relationships between temperature and mortality were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). In general, the adverse effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality were greater in the older age groups, presenting a higher risk during the winter season. We found that, for all ages, 10.7% (95% CI: 9.3–12.1%) deaths were attributed to cold temperatures in the winter, and mostly due to moderately cold temperatures, 7.0% (95% CI: 6.2–7.8%), against extremely cold temperatures, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9–1.8%). When stratified by age, people aged 85+ years were more burdened by cold temperatures (13.8%, 95% CI: 11.5–16.0%). However, for all ages, 5.6% of deaths (95% CI: 2.7–8.4%) can be attributed to hot temperatures. It was observed that the proportion of deaths attributed to exposure to extreme heat is higher than moderate heat. As with cold temperatures, people aged 85+ years are the most vulnerable age group to heat, 8.4% (95% CI: 3.9%, 2.7%), and mostly due to extreme heat, 1.3% (95% CI: 0.8–1.8%). These results provide new evidence on the health burdens associated with alert thresholds, and they can be used in early warning systems and adaptation plans. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z. Springer US 2021-04-12 2021-08 /pmc/articles/PMC8040763/ /pubmed/33844122 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z Text en © The New York Academy of Medicine 2021
spellingShingle Article
Rodrigues, Mónica
Santana, Paula
Rocha, Alfredo
Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans
title Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans
title_full Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans
title_fullStr Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans
title_full_unstemmed Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans
title_short Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans
title_sort modelling of temperature-attributable mortality among the elderly in lisbon metropolitan area, portugal: a contribution to local strategy for effective prevention plans
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040763/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33844122
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z
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