Cargando…
Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans
Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040763/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33844122 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z |
_version_ | 1783677841345347584 |
---|---|
author | Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo |
author_facet | Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo |
author_sort | Rodrigues, Mónica |
collection | PubMed |
description | Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to estimate and assess the health burden of temperature-attributable mortality among age groups (0–64 years; 65–74 years; 75–84 years; and 85+ years) in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, from 1986–2015. Non-linear and delayed exposure–lag–response relationships between temperature and mortality were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). In general, the adverse effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality were greater in the older age groups, presenting a higher risk during the winter season. We found that, for all ages, 10.7% (95% CI: 9.3–12.1%) deaths were attributed to cold temperatures in the winter, and mostly due to moderately cold temperatures, 7.0% (95% CI: 6.2–7.8%), against extremely cold temperatures, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9–1.8%). When stratified by age, people aged 85+ years were more burdened by cold temperatures (13.8%, 95% CI: 11.5–16.0%). However, for all ages, 5.6% of deaths (95% CI: 2.7–8.4%) can be attributed to hot temperatures. It was observed that the proportion of deaths attributed to exposure to extreme heat is higher than moderate heat. As with cold temperatures, people aged 85+ years are the most vulnerable age group to heat, 8.4% (95% CI: 3.9%, 2.7%), and mostly due to extreme heat, 1.3% (95% CI: 0.8–1.8%). These results provide new evidence on the health burdens associated with alert thresholds, and they can be used in early warning systems and adaptation plans. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8040763 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80407632021-04-13 Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo J Urban Health Article Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to estimate and assess the health burden of temperature-attributable mortality among age groups (0–64 years; 65–74 years; 75–84 years; and 85+ years) in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, from 1986–2015. Non-linear and delayed exposure–lag–response relationships between temperature and mortality were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). In general, the adverse effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality were greater in the older age groups, presenting a higher risk during the winter season. We found that, for all ages, 10.7% (95% CI: 9.3–12.1%) deaths were attributed to cold temperatures in the winter, and mostly due to moderately cold temperatures, 7.0% (95% CI: 6.2–7.8%), against extremely cold temperatures, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9–1.8%). When stratified by age, people aged 85+ years were more burdened by cold temperatures (13.8%, 95% CI: 11.5–16.0%). However, for all ages, 5.6% of deaths (95% CI: 2.7–8.4%) can be attributed to hot temperatures. It was observed that the proportion of deaths attributed to exposure to extreme heat is higher than moderate heat. As with cold temperatures, people aged 85+ years are the most vulnerable age group to heat, 8.4% (95% CI: 3.9%, 2.7%), and mostly due to extreme heat, 1.3% (95% CI: 0.8–1.8%). These results provide new evidence on the health burdens associated with alert thresholds, and they can be used in early warning systems and adaptation plans. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z. Springer US 2021-04-12 2021-08 /pmc/articles/PMC8040763/ /pubmed/33844122 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z Text en © The New York Academy of Medicine 2021 |
spellingShingle | Article Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans |
title | Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans |
title_full | Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans |
title_fullStr | Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans |
title_full_unstemmed | Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans |
title_short | Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans |
title_sort | modelling of temperature-attributable mortality among the elderly in lisbon metropolitan area, portugal: a contribution to local strategy for effective prevention plans |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040763/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33844122 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z |
work_keys_str_mv | AT rodriguesmonica modellingoftemperatureattributablemortalityamongtheelderlyinlisbonmetropolitanareaportugalacontributiontolocalstrategyforeffectivepreventionplans AT santanapaula modellingoftemperatureattributablemortalityamongtheelderlyinlisbonmetropolitanareaportugalacontributiontolocalstrategyforeffectivepreventionplans AT rochaalfredo modellingoftemperatureattributablemortalityamongtheelderlyinlisbonmetropolitanareaportugalacontributiontolocalstrategyforeffectivepreventionplans |