The effectiveness of travel restriction measures in alleviating the COVID-19 epidemic: evidence from Shenzhen, China

With the expansion of the global novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, unprecedented interventions have been widely implemented in many countries, including China. In view of this scenario, this research aims to explore the effectiveness of population mobility restriction in alleviating epidemic transmission during different stages of the outbreak. Taking Shenzhen, a city with a large immigrant population in China, as a case study, the real-time reproduction number of COVID-19 is estimated by statistical methods to represent the dynamic spatiotemporal transmission pattern of COVID-19. Furthermore, migration data between Shenzhen and other provinces are collected to investigate the impact of nationwide population flow on near-real-time dynamic reproductive numbers. The results show that traffic flow control between populated cities has an inhibitory effect on urban transmission, but this effect is not significant in the late stage of the epidemic spread in China. This finding implies that the government should limit international and domestic population movement starting from the very early stage of the outbreak. This work confirms the effectiveness of travel restriction measures in the face of COVID-19 in China and provides new insight for densely populated cities in imposing intervention measures at various stages of the transmission cycle.