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Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming

Forecasting which species/ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate warming is essential to guide conservation strategies to minimize extinction. Tropical/mid-latitude species are predicted to be most at risk as they live close to their upper critical thermal limits (CTLs). However, these assessment...

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Autores principales: van Heerwaarden, Belinda, Sgrò, Carla M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8044094/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33850157
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22546-w
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author van Heerwaarden, Belinda
Sgrò, Carla M.
author_facet van Heerwaarden, Belinda
Sgrò, Carla M.
author_sort van Heerwaarden, Belinda
collection PubMed
description Forecasting which species/ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate warming is essential to guide conservation strategies to minimize extinction. Tropical/mid-latitude species are predicted to be most at risk as they live close to their upper critical thermal limits (CTLs). However, these assessments assume that upper CTL estimates, such as CTmax, are accurate predictors of vulnerability and ignore the potential for evolution to ameliorate temperature increases. Here, we use experimental evolution to assess extinction risk and adaptation in tropical and widespread Drosophila species. We find tropical species succumb to extinction before widespread species. Male fertility thermal limits, which are much lower than CTmax, are better predictors of species’ current distributions and extinction in the laboratory. We find little evidence of adaptive responses to warming in any species. These results suggest that species are living closer to their upper thermal limits than currently presumed and evolution/plasticity are unlikely to rescue populations from extinction.
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spelling pubmed-80440942021-04-30 Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming van Heerwaarden, Belinda Sgrò, Carla M. Nat Commun Article Forecasting which species/ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate warming is essential to guide conservation strategies to minimize extinction. Tropical/mid-latitude species are predicted to be most at risk as they live close to their upper critical thermal limits (CTLs). However, these assessments assume that upper CTL estimates, such as CTmax, are accurate predictors of vulnerability and ignore the potential for evolution to ameliorate temperature increases. Here, we use experimental evolution to assess extinction risk and adaptation in tropical and widespread Drosophila species. We find tropical species succumb to extinction before widespread species. Male fertility thermal limits, which are much lower than CTmax, are better predictors of species’ current distributions and extinction in the laboratory. We find little evidence of adaptive responses to warming in any species. These results suggest that species are living closer to their upper thermal limits than currently presumed and evolution/plasticity are unlikely to rescue populations from extinction. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-04-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8044094/ /pubmed/33850157 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22546-w Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
van Heerwaarden, Belinda
Sgrò, Carla M.
Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming
title Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming
title_full Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming
title_fullStr Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming
title_full_unstemmed Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming
title_short Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming
title_sort male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8044094/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33850157
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22546-w
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