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Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia

Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium spe...

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Autores principales: Chemura, Abel, Mudereri, Bester Tawona, Yalew, Amsalu Woldie, Gornott, Christoph
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8046822/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33854166
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4
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author Chemura, Abel
Mudereri, Bester Tawona
Yalew, Amsalu Woldie
Gornott, Christoph
author_facet Chemura, Abel
Mudereri, Bester Tawona
Yalew, Amsalu Woldie
Gornott, Christoph
author_sort Chemura, Abel
collection PubMed
description Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience.
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spelling pubmed-80468222021-04-15 Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia Chemura, Abel Mudereri, Bester Tawona Yalew, Amsalu Woldie Gornott, Christoph Sci Rep Article Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-04-14 /pmc/articles/PMC8046822/ /pubmed/33854166 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Chemura, Abel
Mudereri, Bester Tawona
Yalew, Amsalu Woldie
Gornott, Christoph
Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_full Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_fullStr Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_short Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_sort climate change and specialty coffee potential in ethiopia
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8046822/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33854166
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4
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AT gornottchristoph climatechangeandspecialtycoffeepotentialinethiopia