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Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal

The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which i...

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Autores principales: Strefler, Jessica, Kriegler, Elmar, Bauer, Nico, Luderer, Gunnar, Pietzcker, Robert C., Giannousakis, Anastasis, Edenhofer, Ottmar
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8050196/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33859170
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2
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author Strefler, Jessica
Kriegler, Elmar
Bauer, Nico
Luderer, Gunnar
Pietzcker, Robert C.
Giannousakis, Anastasis
Edenhofer, Ottmar
author_facet Strefler, Jessica
Kriegler, Elmar
Bauer, Nico
Luderer, Gunnar
Pietzcker, Robert C.
Giannousakis, Anastasis
Edenhofer, Ottmar
author_sort Strefler, Jessica
collection PubMed
description The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached.
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spelling pubmed-80501962021-04-30 Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal Strefler, Jessica Kriegler, Elmar Bauer, Nico Luderer, Gunnar Pietzcker, Robert C. Giannousakis, Anastasis Edenhofer, Ottmar Nat Commun Article The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-04-15 /pmc/articles/PMC8050196/ /pubmed/33859170 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Strefler, Jessica
Kriegler, Elmar
Bauer, Nico
Luderer, Gunnar
Pietzcker, Robert C.
Giannousakis, Anastasis
Edenhofer, Ottmar
Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
title Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
title_full Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
title_fullStr Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
title_full_unstemmed Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
title_short Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
title_sort alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8050196/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33859170
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2
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