Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes

With the rapid increase of reported COVID‐19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4‐week “shutdown light” starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiv...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria, Fuhrmann, Jan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020
Materias:
Short Articles
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8051701/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33277962
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12827
Descripción
Sumario:With the rapid increase of reported COVID‐19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4‐week “shutdown light” starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives.

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