Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes

With the rapid increase of reported COVID‐19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4‐week “shutdown light” starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiv...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria, Fuhrmann, Jan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020
Materias:
Short Articles
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8051701/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33277962
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12827
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author Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria
Fuhrmann, Jan
author_facet Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria
Fuhrmann, Jan
author_sort Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria
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description With the rapid increase of reported COVID‐19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4‐week “shutdown light” starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives.
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spelling pubmed-80517012021-05-01 Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria Fuhrmann, Jan Influenza Other Respir Viruses Short Articles With the rapid increase of reported COVID‐19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4‐week “shutdown light” starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020-12-05 2021-05 /pmc/articles/PMC8051701/ /pubmed/33277962 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12827 Text en © 2020 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Short Articles
Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria
Fuhrmann, Jan
Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes
title Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes
title_full Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes
title_fullStr Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes
title_full_unstemmed Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes
title_short Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes
title_sort germany’s next shutdown—possible scenarios and outcomes
topic Short Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8051701/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33277962
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12827
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