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External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival
PURPOSE: Decision-making for treatment of newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) is complex due to the multiple initial treatment modalities available. We aimed to externally validate the SCaP (Severance Study Group of Prostate Cancer) Survival Calculator that incorporates a long short-term memory ar...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Korean Cancer Association
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8053858/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33070560 http://dx.doi.org/10.4143/crt.2020.637 |
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author | Lim, Bumjin Lee, Kwang Suk Lee, Young Hwa Kim, Suah Min, Choongki Park, Ju-Young Lee, Hye Sun Cho, Jin Seon Kim, Sun Il Chung, Byung Ha Kim, Choung-Soo Koo, Kyo Chul |
author_facet | Lim, Bumjin Lee, Kwang Suk Lee, Young Hwa Kim, Suah Min, Choongki Park, Ju-Young Lee, Hye Sun Cho, Jin Seon Kim, Sun Il Chung, Byung Ha Kim, Choung-Soo Koo, Kyo Chul |
author_sort | Lim, Bumjin |
collection | PubMed |
description | PURPOSE: Decision-making for treatment of newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) is complex due to the multiple initial treatment modalities available. We aimed to externally validate the SCaP (Severance Study Group of Prostate Cancer) Survival Calculator that incorporates a long short-term memory artificial neural network (ANN) model to estimate survival outcomes of PCa according to initial treatment modality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The validation cohort consisted of clinicopathological data of 4,415 patients diagnosed with biopsy-proven PCa between April 2005 and November 2018 at three institutions. Area under the curves (AUCs) and time-to-event calibration plots were utilized to determine the predictive accuracies of the SCaP Survival Calculator in terms of progression to castration-resistant PCa (CRPC)–free survival, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Excellent discrimination was observed for CRPC-free survival, CSS, and OS outcomes, with AUCs of 0.962, 0.944, and 0.884 for 5-year outcomes and 0.959, 0.928, and 0.854 for 10-year outcomes, respectively. The AUC values were higher for all survival endpoints compared to those of the development cohort. Calibration plots showed that predicted probabilities of 5-year survival endpoints had concordance comparable to those of the observed frequencies. However, calibration performances declined for 10-year predictions with an overall underestimation. CONCLUSION: The SCaP Survival Calculator is a reliable and useful tool for determining the optimal initial treatment modality and for guiding survival predictions for patients with newly diagnosed PCa. Further modifications in the ANN model incorporating cases with more extended follow-up periods are warranted to improve the ANN model for long-term predictions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8053858 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Korean Cancer Association |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80538582021-04-29 External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival Lim, Bumjin Lee, Kwang Suk Lee, Young Hwa Kim, Suah Min, Choongki Park, Ju-Young Lee, Hye Sun Cho, Jin Seon Kim, Sun Il Chung, Byung Ha Kim, Choung-Soo Koo, Kyo Chul Cancer Res Treat Original Article PURPOSE: Decision-making for treatment of newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) is complex due to the multiple initial treatment modalities available. We aimed to externally validate the SCaP (Severance Study Group of Prostate Cancer) Survival Calculator that incorporates a long short-term memory artificial neural network (ANN) model to estimate survival outcomes of PCa according to initial treatment modality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The validation cohort consisted of clinicopathological data of 4,415 patients diagnosed with biopsy-proven PCa between April 2005 and November 2018 at three institutions. Area under the curves (AUCs) and time-to-event calibration plots were utilized to determine the predictive accuracies of the SCaP Survival Calculator in terms of progression to castration-resistant PCa (CRPC)–free survival, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Excellent discrimination was observed for CRPC-free survival, CSS, and OS outcomes, with AUCs of 0.962, 0.944, and 0.884 for 5-year outcomes and 0.959, 0.928, and 0.854 for 10-year outcomes, respectively. The AUC values were higher for all survival endpoints compared to those of the development cohort. Calibration plots showed that predicted probabilities of 5-year survival endpoints had concordance comparable to those of the observed frequencies. However, calibration performances declined for 10-year predictions with an overall underestimation. CONCLUSION: The SCaP Survival Calculator is a reliable and useful tool for determining the optimal initial treatment modality and for guiding survival predictions for patients with newly diagnosed PCa. Further modifications in the ANN model incorporating cases with more extended follow-up periods are warranted to improve the ANN model for long-term predictions. Korean Cancer Association 2021-04 2020-10-06 /pmc/articles/PMC8053858/ /pubmed/33070560 http://dx.doi.org/10.4143/crt.2020.637 Text en Copyright © 2021 by the Korean Cancer Association https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) ) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Article Lim, Bumjin Lee, Kwang Suk Lee, Young Hwa Kim, Suah Min, Choongki Park, Ju-Young Lee, Hye Sun Cho, Jin Seon Kim, Sun Il Chung, Byung Ha Kim, Choung-Soo Koo, Kyo Chul External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival |
title | External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival |
title_full | External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival |
title_fullStr | External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival |
title_full_unstemmed | External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival |
title_short | External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival |
title_sort | external validation of the long short-term memory artificial neural network-based scap survival calculator for prediction of prostate cancer survival |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8053858/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33070560 http://dx.doi.org/10.4143/crt.2020.637 |
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