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Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading

In all countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the va...

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Autores principales: Lanteri, D., Carco, D., Castorina, P., Ceccarelli, M., Cacopardo, B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8054142/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33898882
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.003
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author Lanteri, D.
Carco, D.
Castorina, P.
Ceccarelli, M.
Cacopardo, B.
author_facet Lanteri, D.
Carco, D.
Castorina, P.
Ceccarelli, M.
Cacopardo, B.
author_sort Lanteri, D.
collection PubMed
description In all countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the various economical sectors. However, in this new phase, the infection spread restarts and, moreover, possible mutations of the virus give rise to a large specific growth rate of the infected people. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of the regrowth pattern is very useful. We discuss a macroscopic approach which, on the basis of the collected data in the first lockdown, after few days from the beginning of the new phase, outlines different scenarios of the Covid-19 diffusion for longer time. The purpose of this paper is a demonstration-of-concept: one takes simple growth models, considers the available data and shows how the future trend of the spread can be obtained. The method applies a time dependent carrying capacity, analogously to many macroscopic growth laws in biology, economics and population dynamics. The illustrative cases of France, Italy and United Kingdom are analyzed.
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spelling pubmed-80541422021-04-23 Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading Lanteri, D. Carco, D. Castorina, P. Ceccarelli, M. Cacopardo, B. Infect Dis Model Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu In all countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the various economical sectors. However, in this new phase, the infection spread restarts and, moreover, possible mutations of the virus give rise to a large specific growth rate of the infected people. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of the regrowth pattern is very useful. We discuss a macroscopic approach which, on the basis of the collected data in the first lockdown, after few days from the beginning of the new phase, outlines different scenarios of the Covid-19 diffusion for longer time. The purpose of this paper is a demonstration-of-concept: one takes simple growth models, considers the available data and shows how the future trend of the spread can be obtained. The method applies a time dependent carrying capacity, analogously to many macroscopic growth laws in biology, economics and population dynamics. The illustrative cases of France, Italy and United Kingdom are analyzed. KeAi Publishing 2021-04-07 /pmc/articles/PMC8054142/ /pubmed/33898882 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.003 Text en © 2021 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Lanteri, D.
Carco, D.
Castorina, P.
Ceccarelli, M.
Cacopardo, B.
Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
title Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
title_full Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
title_fullStr Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
title_full_unstemmed Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
title_short Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
title_sort containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the covid-19 spreading
topic Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8054142/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33898882
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.003
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