Real-world effects of medications for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: protocol for a UK population-based non-interventional cohort study with validation against randomised trial results

INTRODUCTION: Patients with atrial fibrillation experience an irregular heart rate and have an increased risk of stroke; prophylactic treatment with anticoagulation medication reduces this risk. Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been approved providing an alternative to vitamin K antagonists such as warfarin. There is interest from regulatory bodies on the effectiveness of medications in routine clinical practice; however, uncertainty remains regarding the suitability of non-interventional data for answering questions on drug effectiveness and on the most suitable methods to be used. In this study, we will use data from Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE)—the pivotal trial for the DOAC apixaban—to validate non-interventional methods for assessing treatment effectiveness of anticoagulants. These methods could then be applied to analyse treatment effectiveness in people excluded from or under-represented in ARISTOTLE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Patient characteristics from ARISTOTLE will be used to select a cohort of patients with similar baseline characteristics from two UK electronic health record (EHR) databases, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold and Aurum (between 1 January 2013 and 31 July 2019). Methods such as propensity score matching and coarsened exact matching will be explored in matching between EHR treatment groups to determine the optimal method of obtaining a balanced cohort. Absolute and relative risk of outcomes in the EHR trial-analogous cohort will be calculated and compared with the ARISTOTLE results; if results are deemed compatible the methods used for matching EHR treatment groups can then be used to examine drug effectiveness over a longer duration of exposure and in special patient groups of interest not studied in the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee of the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency. Results will be disseminated in scientific publications and at relevant conferences.