Plague transforms positive effects of precipitation on prairie dogs to negative effects

Rodents characteristically benefit from increased precipitation, especially in typically dry habitats; “good years” of high precipitation improve their forage and water balance. However, Yersinia pestis (plague), a flea-borne pathogen of mammals that was introduced to western North America, has the greatest negative impact on at least some species of rodents during years of above-average precipitation. In the absence of plague mitigation, negative effects of plague in wet years might overwhelm the otherwise beneficial effects of increased moisture. In Montana and Utah, USA, where plague now occurs enzootically, we investigated the influence of precipitation on finite rates of annual population change (2000–2005) for 3 species of prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) in replicated plots treated with deltamethrin dust and in non-treated plots for paired comparisons. There was a significant interaction between precipitation and treatment. When we reduced plague vector fleas, prairie dog visual counts tended to increase with increasing precipitation. Simultaneously, there was a negative relationship between counts and precipitation on paired plots where plague was not managed, suggesting that plague transformed and reversed the otherwise beneficial effect of increased precipitation. Are the good years gone for prairie dogs? Even if the good years are not gone, they are perhaps relatively scarce compared to historic times prior to the invasion of plague. This scenario might apply to other ecosystems and may pose broad conservation challenges in western North America.