Risk prediction in medically treated chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension

BACKGROUND: At present, there is no generally accepted comprehensive prognostic risk prediction model for medically treated chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) patients. METHODS: Consecutive medically treated CTEPH patients were enrolled in a national multicenter prospective registry study from August 2009 to July 2018. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to derive the prognostic model, and a simplified risk score was created thereafter. Model performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration, and compared to the Swedish/COMPERA risk stratification method. Internal and external validation were conducted to validate the model performance. RESULTS: A total of 432 patients were enrolled. During a median follow-up time of 38.73 months (IQR: 20.79, 66.10), 94 patients (21.8%) died. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimates were 95.5%, 83.7%, and 70.9%, respectively. The final model included the following variables: the Swedish/COMPERA risk stratum (low-, intermediate- or high-risk stratum), pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR, ≤ or > 1600 dyn·s/cm(5)), total bilirubin (TBIL, ≤ or > 38 µmol/L) and chronic kidney disease (CKD, no or yes). Compared with the Swedish/COMPERA risk stratification method alone, both the derived model [C-index: 0.715; net reclassification improvement (NRI): 0.300; integrated discriminatory index (IDI): 0.095] and the risk score (C-index: 0.713; NRI: 0.300; IDI: 0.093) showed improved discriminatory power. The performance was validated in a validation cohort of 84 patients (C-index = 0.707 for the model and 0.721 for the risk score). CONCLUSIONS: A novel risk stratification strategy can serve as a useful tool for determining prognosis and guide management for medically treated CTEPH patients. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (Identifier: NCT01417338). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01495-6.