Serum lactate level predicts 6-months mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis: a retrospective study

The prediction of prognosis is an important part of management in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related decompensated cirrhosis patients with high long-term mortality. Lactate is a known predictor of outcome in critically ill patients. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of lactate in HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients. We performed a single-centre, observational, retrospective study of 405 HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients. Individuals were evaluated within 24 h after admission and the primary outcome was evaluated at 6-months. Multivariable analyses were used to determine whether lactate was independently associated with the prognosis of HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients. The area under the ROC (AUROC) was calculated to assess the predictive accuracy compared with existing scores. Serum lactate level was significantly higher in non-surviving patients than in surviving patients. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that lactate was an independent risk factor of 6-months mortality (odds ratio: 2.076, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate the discriminative ability of lactate for 6-months mortality (AUROC: 0.716, P < 0.001). Based on our patient cohort, the new scores (Model For End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) + lactate score, Child–Pugh + lactate score) had good accuracy for predicting 6-months mortality (AUROC = 0.769, P < 0.001; AUROC = 0.766, P < 0.001). Additionally, the performance of the new scores was superior to those of existing scores (all P < 0.001). Serum lactate at admission may be useful for predicting 6-months mortality in HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients, and the predictive value of the MELD score and Child–Pugh score was improved by adjusting lactate. Serum lactate should be part of the rapid diagnosis and initiation of therapy to improve clinical outcome.