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Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 20...

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Autores principales: Awwad, Fuad A., Mohamoud, Moataz A., Abonazel, Mohamed R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8057600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33878136
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250149
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author Awwad, Fuad A.
Mohamoud, Moataz A.
Abonazel, Mohamed R.
author_facet Awwad, Fuad A.
Mohamoud, Moataz A.
Abonazel, Mohamed R.
author_sort Awwad, Fuad A.
collection PubMed
description The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year’s Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted.
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spelling pubmed-80576002021-05-04 Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling Awwad, Fuad A. Mohamoud, Moataz A. Abonazel, Mohamed R. PLoS One Research Article The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year’s Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted. Public Library of Science 2021-04-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8057600/ /pubmed/33878136 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250149 Text en © 2021 Awwad et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Awwad, Fuad A.
Mohamoud, Moataz A.
Abonazel, Mohamed R.
Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling
title Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling
title_full Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling
title_fullStr Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling
title_full_unstemmed Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling
title_short Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling
title_sort estimating covid-19 cases in makkah region of saudi arabia: space-time arima modeling
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8057600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33878136
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250149
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