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Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed multiple public health, socio-economic, and institutional crises. Measures taken to slow the spread of the virus have fostered significant strain between authorities and citizens, leading to waves of social unrest and anti-government demonstrations. We study the t...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8062074/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33886656 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250433 |
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author | Campedelli, Gian Maria D’Orsogna, Maria R. |
author_facet | Campedelli, Gian Maria D’Orsogna, Maria R. |
author_sort | Campedelli, Gian Maria |
collection | PubMed |
description | The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed multiple public health, socio-economic, and institutional crises. Measures taken to slow the spread of the virus have fostered significant strain between authorities and citizens, leading to waves of social unrest and anti-government demonstrations. We study the temporal nature of pandemic-related disorder events as tallied by the “COVID-19 Disorder Tracker” initiative by focusing on the three countries with the largest number of incidents, India, Israel, and Mexico. By fitting Poisson and Hawkes processes to the stream of data, we find that disorder events are inter-dependent and self-excite in all three countries. Geographic clustering confirms these features at the subnational level, indicating that nationwide disorders emerge as the convergence of meso-scale patterns of self-excitation. Considerable diversity is observed among countries when computing correlations of events between subnational clusters; these are discussed in the context of specific political, societal and geographic characteristics. Israel, the most territorially compact and where large scale protests were coordinated in response to government lockdowns, displays the largest reactivity and the shortest period of influence following an event, as well as the strongest nationwide synchrony. In Mexico, where complete lockdown orders were never mandated, reactivity and nationwide synchrony are lowest. Our work highlights the need for authorities to promote local information campaigns to ensure that livelihoods and virus containment policies are not perceived as mutually exclusive. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8062074 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80620742021-05-04 Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic Campedelli, Gian Maria D’Orsogna, Maria R. PLoS One Research Article The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed multiple public health, socio-economic, and institutional crises. Measures taken to slow the spread of the virus have fostered significant strain between authorities and citizens, leading to waves of social unrest and anti-government demonstrations. We study the temporal nature of pandemic-related disorder events as tallied by the “COVID-19 Disorder Tracker” initiative by focusing on the three countries with the largest number of incidents, India, Israel, and Mexico. By fitting Poisson and Hawkes processes to the stream of data, we find that disorder events are inter-dependent and self-excite in all three countries. Geographic clustering confirms these features at the subnational level, indicating that nationwide disorders emerge as the convergence of meso-scale patterns of self-excitation. Considerable diversity is observed among countries when computing correlations of events between subnational clusters; these are discussed in the context of specific political, societal and geographic characteristics. Israel, the most territorially compact and where large scale protests were coordinated in response to government lockdowns, displays the largest reactivity and the shortest period of influence following an event, as well as the strongest nationwide synchrony. In Mexico, where complete lockdown orders were never mandated, reactivity and nationwide synchrony are lowest. Our work highlights the need for authorities to promote local information campaigns to ensure that livelihoods and virus containment policies are not perceived as mutually exclusive. Public Library of Science 2021-04-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8062074/ /pubmed/33886656 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250433 Text en © 2021 Campedelli, D’Orsogna https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Campedelli, Gian Maria D’Orsogna, Maria R. Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title | Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full | Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_fullStr | Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed | Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_short | Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_sort | temporal clustering of disorder events during the covid-19 pandemic |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8062074/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33886656 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250433 |
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