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Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century
Global climate change will alter wind sea and swell waves, modifying the severity, frequency and impact of episodic coastal flooding and morphological change. Global-scale estimates of increases to coastal impacts have been typically attributed to sea level rise and not specifically to changes to wa...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8065105/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33893340 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87358-w |
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author | O’Grady, J. G. Hemer, M. A. McInnes, K. L. Trenham, C. E. Stephenson, A. G. |
author_facet | O’Grady, J. G. Hemer, M. A. McInnes, K. L. Trenham, C. E. Stephenson, A. G. |
author_sort | O’Grady, J. G. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Global climate change will alter wind sea and swell waves, modifying the severity, frequency and impact of episodic coastal flooding and morphological change. Global-scale estimates of increases to coastal impacts have been typically attributed to sea level rise and not specifically to changes to waves on their own. This study provides a reduced complexity method for applying projected extreme wave changes to local scale impact studies. We use non-stationary extreme value analysis to distil an incremental change signal in extreme wave heights and associate this with a change in the frequency of events globally. Extreme wave heights are not projected to increase everywhere. We find that the largest increases will typically be experienced at higher latitudes, and that there is high ensemble model agreement on an increase (doubling of events) for the waters south of Australia, the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Guinea by the end of the twenty-first century. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8065105 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80651052021-04-27 Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century O’Grady, J. G. Hemer, M. A. McInnes, K. L. Trenham, C. E. Stephenson, A. G. Sci Rep Article Global climate change will alter wind sea and swell waves, modifying the severity, frequency and impact of episodic coastal flooding and morphological change. Global-scale estimates of increases to coastal impacts have been typically attributed to sea level rise and not specifically to changes to waves on their own. This study provides a reduced complexity method for applying projected extreme wave changes to local scale impact studies. We use non-stationary extreme value analysis to distil an incremental change signal in extreme wave heights and associate this with a change in the frequency of events globally. Extreme wave heights are not projected to increase everywhere. We find that the largest increases will typically be experienced at higher latitudes, and that there is high ensemble model agreement on an increase (doubling of events) for the waters south of Australia, the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Guinea by the end of the twenty-first century. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-04-23 /pmc/articles/PMC8065105/ /pubmed/33893340 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87358-w Text en © Crown 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article O’Grady, J. G. Hemer, M. A. McInnes, K. L. Trenham, C. E. Stephenson, A. G. Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century |
title | Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century |
title_full | Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century |
title_fullStr | Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century |
title_full_unstemmed | Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century |
title_short | Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century |
title_sort | projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8065105/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33893340 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87358-w |
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