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Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas

At the beginning of August 2020, the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas experienced a rapid increase of coronavirus disease 2019 (abbreviated as COVID-19) cases and deaths. This study aims to determine the optimal levels of effective social distancing and testing to slow the virus spread at the outset...

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Autores principales: Vatcheva, Kristina P., Sifuentes, Josef, Oraby, Tamer, Maldonado, Jose Campo, Huber, Timothy, Villalobos, María Cristina
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8065238/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33937596
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.004
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author Vatcheva, Kristina P.
Sifuentes, Josef
Oraby, Tamer
Maldonado, Jose Campo
Huber, Timothy
Villalobos, María Cristina
author_facet Vatcheva, Kristina P.
Sifuentes, Josef
Oraby, Tamer
Maldonado, Jose Campo
Huber, Timothy
Villalobos, María Cristina
author_sort Vatcheva, Kristina P.
collection PubMed
description At the beginning of August 2020, the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas experienced a rapid increase of coronavirus disease 2019 (abbreviated as COVID-19) cases and deaths. This study aims to determine the optimal levels of effective social distancing and testing to slow the virus spread at the outset of the pandemic. We use an age-stratified eight compartment epidemiological model to depict COVID-19 transmission in the community and within households. With a simulated 120-day outbreak period data we obtain a post 180-days period optimal control strategy solution. Our results show that easing social distancing between adults by the end of the 180-day period requires very strict testing a month later and then daily testing rates of 5% followed by isolation of positive cases. Relaxing social distancing rates in adults from 50% to 25% requires both children and seniors to maintain social distancing rates of 50% for nearly the entire period while maintaining maximum testing rates of children and seniors for 150 of the 180 days considered in this model. Children have higher contact rates which leads to transmission based on our model, emphasizing the need for caution when considering school reopenings.
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spelling pubmed-80652382021-04-26 Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas Vatcheva, Kristina P. Sifuentes, Josef Oraby, Tamer Maldonado, Jose Campo Huber, Timothy Villalobos, María Cristina Infect Dis Model Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu At the beginning of August 2020, the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas experienced a rapid increase of coronavirus disease 2019 (abbreviated as COVID-19) cases and deaths. This study aims to determine the optimal levels of effective social distancing and testing to slow the virus spread at the outset of the pandemic. We use an age-stratified eight compartment epidemiological model to depict COVID-19 transmission in the community and within households. With a simulated 120-day outbreak period data we obtain a post 180-days period optimal control strategy solution. Our results show that easing social distancing between adults by the end of the 180-day period requires very strict testing a month later and then daily testing rates of 5% followed by isolation of positive cases. Relaxing social distancing rates in adults from 50% to 25% requires both children and seniors to maintain social distancing rates of 50% for nearly the entire period while maintaining maximum testing rates of children and seniors for 150 of the 180 days considered in this model. Children have higher contact rates which leads to transmission based on our model, emphasizing the need for caution when considering school reopenings. KeAi Publishing 2021-04-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8065238/ /pubmed/33937596 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.004 Text en © 2021 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Vatcheva, Kristina P.
Sifuentes, Josef
Oraby, Tamer
Maldonado, Jose Campo
Huber, Timothy
Villalobos, María Cristina
Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas
title Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas
title_full Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas
title_fullStr Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas
title_full_unstemmed Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas
title_short Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas
title_sort social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of covid-19 in the rio grande valley of texas
topic Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8065238/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33937596
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.004
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