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The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study

The current understanding of ambient temperature and its link to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unclear. The objective of this study was to explore the environmental and climatic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2. For this study, we analyzed the data at the...

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Autores principales: Yang, Hsiao-Yu, Lee, Jason Kai Wei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8068915/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33921381
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084052
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author Yang, Hsiao-Yu
Lee, Jason Kai Wei
author_facet Yang, Hsiao-Yu
Lee, Jason Kai Wei
author_sort Yang, Hsiao-Yu
collection PubMed
description The current understanding of ambient temperature and its link to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unclear. The objective of this study was to explore the environmental and climatic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2. For this study, we analyzed the data at the beginning of the outbreak (from 20 January to 31 March 2020) to avoid the influence of preventive or control measures. We obtained the number of cases and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2, international tourism, population age, universal health coverage, regional factors, the SARS-CoV-2 testing rate, and population density of a country. A total of 154 countries were included in this study. There were high incidence rates and mortality risks in the countries that had an average ambient temperature between 0 and 10 °C. The adjusted incidence rate for temperatures between 0 and 10 °C was 2.91 (95% CI 2.87–2.95). We randomly divided the data into a training set (80% of data) for model derivation and a test set (20% of data) for validation. Using a random forest statistical model, the model had high accuracy for predicting the high epidemic status of a country (ROC = 95.5%, 95% CI 87.9–100.0%) in the test set. Population age, temperature, and international tourism were the most important factors affecting the risk of SARS-CoV-2 in a country. An understanding the determinants of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak can help to design better strategies for disease control. This study highlights the need to consider thermal effect in the prevention of emerging infectious diseases.
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spelling pubmed-80689152021-04-26 The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study Yang, Hsiao-Yu Lee, Jason Kai Wei Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The current understanding of ambient temperature and its link to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unclear. The objective of this study was to explore the environmental and climatic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2. For this study, we analyzed the data at the beginning of the outbreak (from 20 January to 31 March 2020) to avoid the influence of preventive or control measures. We obtained the number of cases and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2, international tourism, population age, universal health coverage, regional factors, the SARS-CoV-2 testing rate, and population density of a country. A total of 154 countries were included in this study. There were high incidence rates and mortality risks in the countries that had an average ambient temperature between 0 and 10 °C. The adjusted incidence rate for temperatures between 0 and 10 °C was 2.91 (95% CI 2.87–2.95). We randomly divided the data into a training set (80% of data) for model derivation and a test set (20% of data) for validation. Using a random forest statistical model, the model had high accuracy for predicting the high epidemic status of a country (ROC = 95.5%, 95% CI 87.9–100.0%) in the test set. Population age, temperature, and international tourism were the most important factors affecting the risk of SARS-CoV-2 in a country. An understanding the determinants of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak can help to design better strategies for disease control. This study highlights the need to consider thermal effect in the prevention of emerging infectious diseases. MDPI 2021-04-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8068915/ /pubmed/33921381 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084052 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Yang, Hsiao-Yu
Lee, Jason Kai Wei
The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study
title The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study
title_full The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study
title_fullStr The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study
title_full_unstemmed The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study
title_short The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study
title_sort impact of temperature on the risk of covid-19: a multinational study
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8068915/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33921381
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084052
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