Ecological analysis and environmental niche modelling of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo: A conservation approach for critically endangered medicinal orchid

The natural populations of Dactylorhiza hatagirea have been greatly affected due to incessant exploitation. As such, studies on its population attributes together with habitat suitability and environmental factors affecting its distribution are needed to be undertaken for its conservation in nature. Present study aimed at accessing an impact of anthropogenic pressure on population structure and locate suitable habitats for the conservation of this critically endangered orchid. Considerable changes in the phytosociological attributes were observed on account of the changing magnitude and extent of anthropogenic threat in their natural abode. The distribution pattern of species indicated that more than 90% of the populations exhibit substantially aggregated spatial distribution. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm was used to predict suitable habitat and potential area for its cultivation and reintroduction. Twenty-seven occurrence records, nineteen bioclimatic variables, altitude, and slope were used. MaxEnt map output gave the habitat suitability for this species and predicted its distribution in the North-Western Himalayas of India for approximately 616 km(2). Jackknifing indicated that maximum temperature of warmest month, annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the driest quarter, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the governing factors for its distribution and hence, presented a higher gain with respect to other variables. According to permutation importance, precipitation seasonality and mean temperature of wettest quarter shows the prominent impact on the habitat distribution. Results of AUC (area under curve) were statistically significant (0.940) and the line of predicted omission falls very close to an omission on training samples, validating a better run of the model. Response curves revealed a probable increase in the occurrence of D. hatagirea with an increase in mean temperature of the wettest quarter and maximum temperature of the warmest month contributed more than 50% to predicted habitat suitability. Direct field observations concurrent with predicted habitat suitability and google-earth images represent greater model thresholds for successful inception of the species. Together, the study proposes that the species can be conserved in or near its present-day natural habitats and is equally effective in determining the possible habitats for its cultivation and reintroduction.