How to Identify Future Priority Areas for Urban Development: An Approach of Urban Construction Land Suitability in Ecological Sensitive Areas

The suitability of urban construction land (SUCL) is key to the appropriate utilization of land resources and represents an important foundation for regional exploration and land management. This study explores the SUCL conceptual framework by considering the theory of human-land relationships. The upper reaches of the Yangtze River were studied, a typical ecologically-sensitive area of China. The spatial pattern and control of the SUCL were determined using the improved entropy method. The results show that an area of 91 × 10(4) km(2) was categorized as prohibited or restricted, and these categories account for 28.61% and 50.66% of the total area, respectively. Priority areas and suitable areas are mainly located in the Chengdu Plain, the urban agglomeration of southern Sichuan Province, Chongqing, and the economic corridor in the west, and the surrounding cities of Guiyang and Kunming. SUCL hotspots feature obvious spatial heterogeneity and are concentrated in Sichuan Basin and Guizhou Plateau. The SUCL is obviously constrained by the physical geography of this region. In addition, towns affected by the pole–axis effect have stronger suitability for development and construction. These findings will be very useful for land managers as they provide relevant information about urban development in mountainous areas.