The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Physical Activity and New Incidence of Frailty among Initially Non-Frail Older Adults in Japan: A Follow-Up Online Survey

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on physical activity (PA) and the incidence of frailty among initially non-frail older adults in Japan. DESIGN: A follow-up online survey. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: Among the 1,600 baseline online survey participants, 388 adults were already frail, and 275 older adults did not respond to the follow-up survey. Thus, the final number of participants in this study was 937 (follow-up rate: 77.3%). METHODS: We assessed the total PA time at four time points according to the COVID-19 waves in Japan: January 2020 (before the pandemic), April 2020 (during the first wave), August 2020 (during the second wave), and January 2021 (during the third wave). We then investigated the incidence of frailty during a one-year follow-up period (during the pandemic). RESULTS: The total PA time during the first, second, and third waves of the pandemic decreased from the pre-pandemic PA time by 33.3%, 28.3%, and 40.0%, respectively. In particular, the total PA time of older adults who were living alone and socially inactive decreased significantly: 42.9% (first wave), 50.0% (second wave), and 61.9% (third wave) less than before the pandemic, respectively. Additionally, they were at a significantly higher risk of incident frailty than those who were not living alone and were socially active (adjusted odds ratio: 2.04 [95% confidence interval: 1.01–4.10]). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that older adults who live alone and are socially inactive are more likely to experience incident frailty/disability due to decreased PA during the pandemic. Understanding this mechanism may be crucial for maintaining the health status of older adults.