Thermal stress jeopardizes carbonate production of coral reefs across the western and central Pacific Ocean

Coral reefs protect islands, coastal areas, and their inhabitants from storm waves and provide essential goods and services to millions of people worldwide. Yet contemporary rates of ocean warming and local disturbances are jeopardizing the reef-building capacity of coral reefs to keep up with rapid rates of sea-level rise. This study compared the reef-building capacity of shallow-water habitats at 142 sites across a potential thermal-stress gradient in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We sought to determine the extent to which habitat differences and environmental variables potentially affect rates of net carbonate production. In general, outer-exposed reefs and lagoonal-patch reefs had higher rates of net carbonate production than nearshore reefs. The study found that thermal anomalies, particularly the intensity of thermal-stress events, play a significant role in reducing net carbonate production—evident as a diminishing trend of net carbonate production from the western to the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The results also showed a latent spatial effect along the same gradient, not explained by thermal stress, suggesting that reefs in the western tropical Pacific Ocean are potentially enhanced by the proximity of reefs in the Coral Triangle—an effect that diminishes with increasing distance and isolation.