Revised Korean Antiviral Guideline Reduces the Hepatitis B-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Cirrhotic Patients

BACKGROUND: Since September 2015, the initiation of antiviral therapy (AVT) for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis has been reimbursed according to the revised Korean Association for the Study of Liver (KASL) guideline, if the patient had hepatitis B virus DNA level ≥ 2,000 IU/L, regardless of aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase levels. This study investigated whether the KASL guideline implementation reduced the risk of CHB-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis in South Korea. METHODS: A total of 429 patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT between 2014 and 2016 were recruited. The risk of HCC development was compared between patients who initiated AVT before and after September 2015 (pre-guideline [n = 196, 45.7%] vs. post-guideline implementation [n = 233, 54.3%]). RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation, older age, male gender, and diabetes significantly predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Subsequent multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 1.941), older age (HR = 5.762), male gender (HR = 2.555), and diabetes (HR = 1.568) independently predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Additionally, multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 2.309), male gender (HR = 3.058), and lower platelet count (HR = 0.989) independently predicted mortality (P < 0.05). The cumulative incidences of HCC and mortality were significantly higher in patients who initiated AVT before guideline implementation than in those who initiated AVT after guideline implementation (all P < 0.05, log-rank test). CONCLUSION: The prognosis of patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT improved after guideline implementation according to the revised KASL guideline.