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Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease
BACKGROUND: We aimed to formulate a novel predictive nomogram to discriminate liver fibrosis stage in patients with chronic liver disease. METHODS: Nomograms were established based on the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was assessed by ROC analysis and cali...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8077956/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33906623 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12876-021-01774-w |
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author | Ding, Rongrong Zhou, Xinlan Huang, Dan Wang, Yanbing Li, Xiufen Yan, Li Lu, Wei Yang, Zongguo Zhang, Zhanqing |
author_facet | Ding, Rongrong Zhou, Xinlan Huang, Dan Wang, Yanbing Li, Xiufen Yan, Li Lu, Wei Yang, Zongguo Zhang, Zhanqing |
author_sort | Ding, Rongrong |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: We aimed to formulate a novel predictive nomogram to discriminate liver fibrosis stage in patients with chronic liver disease. METHODS: Nomograms were established based on the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was assessed by ROC analysis and calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical benefit of the nomograms. RESULTS: INR, platelets, and N-terminal propeptide type III collagen (PIIINP) were independent predictors for advanced liver fibrosis (≥ S3) and cirrhosis (S4) in patients with chronic liver disease in the training cohort. In the training set, the areas under the ROCs (AUROCs) of nomogram S3S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage ≥ S3 were 0.83, 0.71, 0.68, and 0.74, respectively; the AUROCs of nomogram S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage S4 were 0.88, 0.74, 0.78, and 0.79, respectively. The calibrations showed optimal agreement between the prediction by the established nomograms and actual observation. In the validation set, the AUROCs of nomogram S3S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage ≥ S3 were 0.86, 0.79, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively; the AUROCs of nomogram S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage S4 were 0.88, 0.77, 0.81, and 0.83, respectively. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis suggested that the nomograms represent better clinical benefits in both independent cohorts than APRI, FIB-4, and GPR. CONCLUSION: The constructed nomograms could be a superior tool for discriminating advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic liver disease. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8077956 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80779562021-04-29 Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease Ding, Rongrong Zhou, Xinlan Huang, Dan Wang, Yanbing Li, Xiufen Yan, Li Lu, Wei Yang, Zongguo Zhang, Zhanqing BMC Gastroenterol Research Article BACKGROUND: We aimed to formulate a novel predictive nomogram to discriminate liver fibrosis stage in patients with chronic liver disease. METHODS: Nomograms were established based on the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was assessed by ROC analysis and calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical benefit of the nomograms. RESULTS: INR, platelets, and N-terminal propeptide type III collagen (PIIINP) were independent predictors for advanced liver fibrosis (≥ S3) and cirrhosis (S4) in patients with chronic liver disease in the training cohort. In the training set, the areas under the ROCs (AUROCs) of nomogram S3S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage ≥ S3 were 0.83, 0.71, 0.68, and 0.74, respectively; the AUROCs of nomogram S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage S4 were 0.88, 0.74, 0.78, and 0.79, respectively. The calibrations showed optimal agreement between the prediction by the established nomograms and actual observation. In the validation set, the AUROCs of nomogram S3S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage ≥ S3 were 0.86, 0.79, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively; the AUROCs of nomogram S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage S4 were 0.88, 0.77, 0.81, and 0.83, respectively. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis suggested that the nomograms represent better clinical benefits in both independent cohorts than APRI, FIB-4, and GPR. CONCLUSION: The constructed nomograms could be a superior tool for discriminating advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic liver disease. BioMed Central 2021-04-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8077956/ /pubmed/33906623 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12876-021-01774-w Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Ding, Rongrong Zhou, Xinlan Huang, Dan Wang, Yanbing Li, Xiufen Yan, Li Lu, Wei Yang, Zongguo Zhang, Zhanqing Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease |
title | Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease |
title_full | Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease |
title_fullStr | Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease |
title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease |
title_short | Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease |
title_sort | nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8077956/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33906623 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12876-021-01774-w |
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