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Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors
The recent experience of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics spreading revealed the importance of passive forms of infection transmissions. Apart from the virus survival outside the host, the latent infection transmissions caused by asymptomatic and presymptomatic hosts represent major challenges for controlling t...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier Ltd.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8078086/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33930762 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104422 |
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author | Tadić, Bosiljka Melnik, Roderick |
author_facet | Tadić, Bosiljka Melnik, Roderick |
author_sort | Tadić, Bosiljka |
collection | PubMed |
description | The recent experience of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics spreading revealed the importance of passive forms of infection transmissions. Apart from the virus survival outside the host, the latent infection transmissions caused by asymptomatic and presymptomatic hosts represent major challenges for controlling the epidemics. In this regard, social mixing and various biological factors play their subtle, but often critical, role. For example, a life-threatening condition may result in the infection contracted from an asymptomatic virus carrier. Here, we use a new recently developed microscopic agent-based modelling framework to shed light on the role of asymptomatic hosts and unravel the interplay between the biological and social factors of these nonlinear stochastic processes at high temporal resolution. The model accounts for each human actor's susceptibility and the virus survival time, as well as traceability along the infection path. These properties enable an efficient dissection of the infection events caused by asymptomatic carriers from those which involve symptomatic hosts before they develop symptoms and become removed to a controlled environment. Consequently, we assess how their relative proportions in the overall infection curve vary with changing model parameters. Our results reveal that these proportions largely depend on biological factors in the process, specifically, the virus transmissibility and the critical threshold for developing symptoms, which can be affected by the virus pathogenicity. Meanwhile, social participation activity is crucial for the overall infection level, further modulated by the virus transmissibility. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8078086 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier Ltd. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80780862021-04-28 Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors Tadić, Bosiljka Melnik, Roderick Comput Biol Med Article The recent experience of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics spreading revealed the importance of passive forms of infection transmissions. Apart from the virus survival outside the host, the latent infection transmissions caused by asymptomatic and presymptomatic hosts represent major challenges for controlling the epidemics. In this regard, social mixing and various biological factors play their subtle, but often critical, role. For example, a life-threatening condition may result in the infection contracted from an asymptomatic virus carrier. Here, we use a new recently developed microscopic agent-based modelling framework to shed light on the role of asymptomatic hosts and unravel the interplay between the biological and social factors of these nonlinear stochastic processes at high temporal resolution. The model accounts for each human actor's susceptibility and the virus survival time, as well as traceability along the infection path. These properties enable an efficient dissection of the infection events caused by asymptomatic carriers from those which involve symptomatic hosts before they develop symptoms and become removed to a controlled environment. Consequently, we assess how their relative proportions in the overall infection curve vary with changing model parameters. Our results reveal that these proportions largely depend on biological factors in the process, specifically, the virus transmissibility and the critical threshold for developing symptoms, which can be affected by the virus pathogenicity. Meanwhile, social participation activity is crucial for the overall infection level, further modulated by the virus transmissibility. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-06 2021-04-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8078086/ /pubmed/33930762 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104422 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Tadić, Bosiljka Melnik, Roderick Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors |
title | Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors |
title_full | Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors |
title_fullStr | Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors |
title_full_unstemmed | Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors |
title_short | Microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in SARS-CoV-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors |
title_sort | microscopic dynamics modeling unravels the role of asymptomatic virus carriers in sars-cov-2 epidemics at the interplay between biological and social factors |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8078086/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33930762 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104422 |
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