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Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy

The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions; however, the...

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Autores principales: Khursheed, Ambreen, Mustafa, Faisal, Akhtar, Ayesha
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8079164/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33907953
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14038-7
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author Khursheed, Ambreen
Mustafa, Faisal
Akhtar, Ayesha
author_facet Khursheed, Ambreen
Mustafa, Faisal
Akhtar, Ayesha
author_sort Khursheed, Ambreen
collection PubMed
description The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions; however, the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 death counts remains unexplored. By investigating the impact of meteorological factors (absolute humidity, relative humidity, and temperature), this study will contribute both theoretically and practically to the concerned domain of pandemic management to be better prepared to control the spread of the disease. For this study, data is collected from 23 February to 31 March 2020 for Milan, Northern Italy, one of the badly hit regions by COVID-19. The generalized additive model (GAM) is applied, and a nonlinear relationship is examined with penalized spline methods. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for the verification of model results. The results reveal that temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have a significant but negative relationship with the COVID-19 mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that cool and dry environmental conditions promote virus transmission, leading to an increase in COVID-19 death counts. The results may facilitate health care policymakers in developing and implementing effective control measures in a timely and efficient way.
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spelling pubmed-80791642021-04-28 Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy Khursheed, Ambreen Mustafa, Faisal Akhtar, Ayesha Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Research Article The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions; however, the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 death counts remains unexplored. By investigating the impact of meteorological factors (absolute humidity, relative humidity, and temperature), this study will contribute both theoretically and practically to the concerned domain of pandemic management to be better prepared to control the spread of the disease. For this study, data is collected from 23 February to 31 March 2020 for Milan, Northern Italy, one of the badly hit regions by COVID-19. The generalized additive model (GAM) is applied, and a nonlinear relationship is examined with penalized spline methods. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for the verification of model results. The results reveal that temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have a significant but negative relationship with the COVID-19 mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that cool and dry environmental conditions promote virus transmission, leading to an increase in COVID-19 death counts. The results may facilitate health care policymakers in developing and implementing effective control measures in a timely and efficient way. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-04-28 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8079164/ /pubmed/33907953 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14038-7 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Research Article
Khursheed, Ambreen
Mustafa, Faisal
Akhtar, Ayesha
Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy
title Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy
title_full Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy
title_fullStr Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy
title_full_unstemmed Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy
title_short Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy
title_sort investigating the roles of meteorological factors in covid-19 transmission in northern italy
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8079164/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33907953
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14038-7
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