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Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength

Recent studies indicate that the processing of an unexpected word is costly when the initial, disconfirmed prediction was strong. This penalty was suggested to stem from commitment to the strongly predicted word, requiring its inhibition when disconfirmed. Additional studies show that comprehenders...

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Autores principales: Ness, Tal, Meltzer-Asscher, Aya
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8079758/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33935874
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.622873
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author Ness, Tal
Meltzer-Asscher, Aya
author_facet Ness, Tal
Meltzer-Asscher, Aya
author_sort Ness, Tal
collection PubMed
description Recent studies indicate that the processing of an unexpected word is costly when the initial, disconfirmed prediction was strong. This penalty was suggested to stem from commitment to the strongly predicted word, requiring its inhibition when disconfirmed. Additional studies show that comprehenders rationally adapt their predictions in different situations. In the current study, we hypothesized that since the disconfirmation of strong predictions incurs costs, it would also trigger adaptation mechanisms influencing the processing of subsequent (potentially) strong predictions. In two experiments (in Hebrew and English), participants made speeded congruency judgments on two-word phrases in which the first word was either highly constraining (e.g., “climate,” which strongly predicts “change”) or not (e.g., “vegetable,” which does not have any highly probable completion). We manipulated the proportion of disconfirmed predictions in highly constraining contexts between participants. The results provide additional evidence of the costs associated with the disconfirmation of strong predictions. Moreover, they show a reduction in these costs when participants experience a high proportion of disconfirmed strong predictions throughout the experiment, indicating that participants adjust the strength of their predictions when strong prediction is discouraged. We formulate a Bayesian adaptation model whereby prediction failure cost is weighted by the participant’s belief (updated on each trial) about the likelihood of encountering the expected word, and show that it accounts for the trial-by-trial data.
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spelling pubmed-80797582021-04-29 Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength Ness, Tal Meltzer-Asscher, Aya Front Psychol Psychology Recent studies indicate that the processing of an unexpected word is costly when the initial, disconfirmed prediction was strong. This penalty was suggested to stem from commitment to the strongly predicted word, requiring its inhibition when disconfirmed. Additional studies show that comprehenders rationally adapt their predictions in different situations. In the current study, we hypothesized that since the disconfirmation of strong predictions incurs costs, it would also trigger adaptation mechanisms influencing the processing of subsequent (potentially) strong predictions. In two experiments (in Hebrew and English), participants made speeded congruency judgments on two-word phrases in which the first word was either highly constraining (e.g., “climate,” which strongly predicts “change”) or not (e.g., “vegetable,” which does not have any highly probable completion). We manipulated the proportion of disconfirmed predictions in highly constraining contexts between participants. The results provide additional evidence of the costs associated with the disconfirmation of strong predictions. Moreover, they show a reduction in these costs when participants experience a high proportion of disconfirmed strong predictions throughout the experiment, indicating that participants adjust the strength of their predictions when strong prediction is discouraged. We formulate a Bayesian adaptation model whereby prediction failure cost is weighted by the participant’s belief (updated on each trial) about the likelihood of encountering the expected word, and show that it accounts for the trial-by-trial data. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-04-14 /pmc/articles/PMC8079758/ /pubmed/33935874 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.622873 Text en Copyright © 2021 Ness and Meltzer-Asscher. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Psychology
Ness, Tal
Meltzer-Asscher, Aya
Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength
title Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength
title_full Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength
title_fullStr Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength
title_full_unstemmed Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength
title_short Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength
title_sort rational adaptation in lexical prediction: the influence of prediction strength
topic Psychology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8079758/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33935874
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.622873
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