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Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef

On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effecti...

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Autores principales: Condie, Scott A., Anthony, Kenneth R. N., Babcock, Russ C., Baird, Mark E., Beeden, Roger, Fletcher, Cameron S., Gorton, Rebecca, Harrison, Daniel, Hobday, Alistair J., Plagányi, Éva E., Westcott, David A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080001/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34007456
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296
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author Condie, Scott A.
Anthony, Kenneth R. N.
Babcock, Russ C.
Baird, Mark E.
Beeden, Roger
Fletcher, Cameron S.
Gorton, Rebecca
Harrison, Daniel
Hobday, Alistair J.
Plagányi, Éva E.
Westcott, David A.
author_facet Condie, Scott A.
Anthony, Kenneth R. N.
Babcock, Russ C.
Baird, Mark E.
Beeden, Roger
Fletcher, Cameron S.
Gorton, Rebecca
Harrison, Daniel
Hobday, Alistair J.
Plagányi, Éva E.
Westcott, David A.
author_sort Condie, Scott A.
collection PubMed
description On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades.
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spelling pubmed-80800012021-05-17 Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef Condie, Scott A. Anthony, Kenneth R. N. Babcock, Russ C. Baird, Mark E. Beeden, Roger Fletcher, Cameron S. Gorton, Rebecca Harrison, Daniel Hobday, Alistair J. Plagányi, Éva E. Westcott, David A. R Soc Open Sci Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades. The Royal Society 2021-04-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8080001/ /pubmed/34007456 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology
Condie, Scott A.
Anthony, Kenneth R. N.
Babcock, Russ C.
Baird, Mark E.
Beeden, Roger
Fletcher, Cameron S.
Gorton, Rebecca
Harrison, Daniel
Hobday, Alistair J.
Plagányi, Éva E.
Westcott, David A.
Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef
title Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef
title_full Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef
title_fullStr Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef
title_full_unstemmed Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef
title_short Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef
title_sort large-scale interventions may delay decline of the great barrier reef
topic Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080001/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34007456
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296
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