Prediction of successful de-cannulation of tracheostomised patients in medical intensive care units

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on practical predictors of successful de-cannulation among the patients who undergo tracheostomies. We evaluated factors associated with failed de-cannulations to develop a prediction model that could be easily be used at the time of weaning from MV. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort of 346 tracheostomised patients managed by a standardized de-cannulation program, multivariable logistic regression analysis identified variables that were independently associated with failed de-cannulation. Based on the logistic regression analysis, the new predictive scoring system for successful de-cannulation, referred to as the DECAN score, was developed and then internally validated. RESULTS: The model included age > 67 years, body mass index < 22 kg/m(2), underlying malignancy, non-respiratory causes of mechanical ventilation (MV), presence of neurologic disease, vasopressor requirement, and presence of post-tracheostomy pneumonia, presence of delirium. The DECAN score was associated with good calibration (goodness-of-fit, 0.6477) and discrimination outcomes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.890, 95% CI 0.853–0.921). The optimal cut-off point for the DECAN score for the prediction of the successful de-cannulation was ≤ 5 points, and was associated with the specificities of 84.6% (95% CI 77.7–90.0) and sensitivities of 80.2% (95% CI 73.9–85.5). CONCLUSIONS: The DECAN score for tracheostomised patients who are successfully weaned from prolonged MV can be computed at the time of weaning to assess the probability of de-cannulation based on readily available variables.