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Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread
Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a univ...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080800/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33911131 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88498-9 |
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author | Jarvis, Katherine F. Kelley, Joshua B. |
author_facet | Jarvis, Katherine F. Kelley, Joshua B. |
author_sort | Jarvis, Katherine F. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8080800 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80808002021-04-30 Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread Jarvis, Katherine F. Kelley, Joshua B. Sci Rep Article Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-04-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8080800/ /pubmed/33911131 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88498-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Jarvis, Katherine F. Kelley, Joshua B. Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread |
title | Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread |
title_full | Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread |
title_fullStr | Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread |
title_full_unstemmed | Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread |
title_short | Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread |
title_sort | temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat covid-19 spread |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080800/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33911131 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88498-9 |
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