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Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change

Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling...

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Autores principales: Erfanian, Mohammad Bagher, Sagharyan, Mostafa, Memariani, Farshid, Ejtehadi, Hamid
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080812/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33911159
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88577-x
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author Erfanian, Mohammad Bagher
Sagharyan, Mostafa
Memariani, Farshid
Ejtehadi, Hamid
author_facet Erfanian, Mohammad Bagher
Sagharyan, Mostafa
Memariani, Farshid
Ejtehadi, Hamid
author_sort Erfanian, Mohammad Bagher
collection PubMed
description Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling (SDM) can be used to assess the vulnerability of species under climate change. Here, we evaluated range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species that grow at various elevations (Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana) using species distribution modelling. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), we predicted potential current and future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for each species. The ensemble model of nine algorithms was used to perform this prediction. Our results indicate that while two of species investigated would benefit from range expansion in the future, P. binaludensis will experience range contraction. The range of E. ferdowsiana will remain limited to the Binalood mountains, but the other species will have suitable habitats in mountain ranges across the KK. Using management efforts (such as fencing) with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales in the KK is necessary to conserve these species. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains in the KK would be beneficial to conserve these plants. For E. ferdowsiana, genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered.
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spelling pubmed-80808122021-04-30 Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change Erfanian, Mohammad Bagher Sagharyan, Mostafa Memariani, Farshid Ejtehadi, Hamid Sci Rep Article Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling (SDM) can be used to assess the vulnerability of species under climate change. Here, we evaluated range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species that grow at various elevations (Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana) using species distribution modelling. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), we predicted potential current and future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for each species. The ensemble model of nine algorithms was used to perform this prediction. Our results indicate that while two of species investigated would benefit from range expansion in the future, P. binaludensis will experience range contraction. The range of E. ferdowsiana will remain limited to the Binalood mountains, but the other species will have suitable habitats in mountain ranges across the KK. Using management efforts (such as fencing) with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales in the KK is necessary to conserve these species. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains in the KK would be beneficial to conserve these plants. For E. ferdowsiana, genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-04-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8080812/ /pubmed/33911159 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88577-x Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Erfanian, Mohammad Bagher
Sagharyan, Mostafa
Memariani, Farshid
Ejtehadi, Hamid
Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_full Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_fullStr Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_full_unstemmed Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_short Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_sort predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the khorassan-kopet dagh floristic province under global change
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080812/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33911159
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88577-x
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