Association of hypertension and incident diabetes in Chinese adults: a retrospective cohort study using propensity-score matching

BACKGROUND: Reliable quantification of the relationship between hypertension and diabetes risk is limited, especially among Chinese people. We aimed to investigate the association between hypertension and the risk of diabetes in a large cohort of the Chinese population. METHODS: This was a retrospective propensity score-matched cohort study among 211,809 Chinese adults without diabetes at baseline between 2010 and 2016. The target independent and dependent variable were hypertension at baseline and incident diabetes during follow-up respectively. The propensity score matching using a non-parsimonious multivariable logistic regression was conducted to balance the confounders between 28,711 hypertensive patients and 28,711 non-hypertensive participants. The doubly robust estimation method was used to investigate the association between hypertension and diabetes. RESULTS: In the propensity-score matching cohort, diabetes risk increased by 11.0% among hypertensive patients (HR = 1.110, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.031–1.195, P = 0.00539). And diabetes risk dropped to 8.3% among hypertensive subjects after adjusting for the propensity score (HR = 1.083, 95%CI: 1.006–1.166, P = 0.03367). Compared to non-hypertensive participants with low propensity score, the risk of incident diabetes increased by 2.646 times among hypertensive patients with high propensity score (HR = 3.646, 95%CI: 2.635–5.045, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Hypertension was associated with an 11.0% increase in the risk of developing diabetes in Chinese adults. And the figure dropped to 8.3% after adjusting the propensity score. Additionally, compared to non-hypertensive participants with low propensity scores, the risk of incident diabetes increased by 2.646 times among hypertensive patients with high propensity scores. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12902-021-00747-0.