Prognostic Nomogram for Postoperative Patients With Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer of No Distant Metastasis

BACKGROUND: Gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) was one of the most common malignant tumors. However, the value of clinicopathological features in predicting the prognosis of postoperative patients with GEJ cancer and without distant metastasis was still unclear. METHODS: The 3425 GEJ patients diagnosed and underwent surgical resection without distant metastasis in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015 were enrolled,and they were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts with 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to determine the predictive factors that constituted the nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminability of Nomogram were determined by the area under the curve (AUC), C index, and calibration curve, and the influence of various factors on prognosis was explored. RESULTS: 2,400 patients were designed as training cohort and 1025 patients were designed as validation cohort. The percentages of the distribution of demographic and clinicopathological characteristics in the training and validation cohorts tended to be the same. In the training cohort, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the age, tumor grade, T stage and N stage were independent prognostic risk factors for patients with GEJ cancer without distant metastasis. The C index of nomogram model was 0.667. The AUC of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) were 0.704 and 0.71, respectively. The calibration curve of 3- and 5-year OS after operation showed that there was the best consistency between nomogram prediction and actual observation. In the validation cohort, the C index of nomogram model, the AUC of 3- and 5-year OS, and the calibration curve were similar to the training cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Nomogram could evaluate the prognosis of patients with GEJ cancer who underwent surgical resection without distant metastasis.