Evaluating Causes of Current Genetic Gradients of Modern Humans of the Iberian Peninsula

The history of modern humans in the Iberian Peninsula includes a variety of population arrivals sometimes presenting admixture with resident populations. Genetic data from current Iberian populations revealed an overall east–west genetic gradient that some authors interpreted as a direct consequence of the Reconquista, where Catholic Kingdoms expanded their territories toward the south while displacing Muslims. However, this interpretation has not been formally evaluated. Here, we present a qualitative analysis of the causes of the current genetic gradient observed in the Iberian Peninsula using extensive spatially explicit computer simulations based on a variety of evolutionary scenarios. Our results indicate that the Neolithic range expansion clearly produces the orientation of the observed genetic gradient. Concerning the Reconquista (including political borders among Catholic Kingdoms and regions with different languages), if modeled upon a previous Neolithic expansion, it effectively favored the orientation of the observed genetic gradient and shows local isolation of certain regions (i.e., Basques and Galicia). Despite additional evolutionary scenarios could be evaluated to more accurately decipher the causes of the Iberian genetic gradient, here we show that this gradient has a more complex explanation than that previously hypothesized.