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Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure

Background: Being born small for gestational age (SGA) is linked with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP). Fetuses with growth restriction (FGR) may be either SGA or appropriate size for gestational age at birth. However, it is not known which factors contributing to size at birth influence the rel...

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Autores principales: Perchard, Reena, Garner, Terence, Whatmore, Andrew James, Stevens, Adam, Higgins, Lucy, Johnstone, Edward, Clayton, Peter Ellis
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8089824/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1210/jendso/bvab048.1443
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author Perchard, Reena
Garner, Terence
Whatmore, Andrew James
Stevens, Adam
Higgins, Lucy
Johnstone, Edward
Clayton, Peter Ellis
author_facet Perchard, Reena
Garner, Terence
Whatmore, Andrew James
Stevens, Adam
Higgins, Lucy
Johnstone, Edward
Clayton, Peter Ellis
author_sort Perchard, Reena
collection PubMed
description Background: Being born small for gestational age (SGA) is linked with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP). Fetuses with growth restriction (FGR) may be either SGA or appropriate size for gestational age at birth. However, it is not known which factors contributing to size at birth influence the relationship with SBP. Aim. To determine whether antenatal markers of FGR can predict the upper quartile of childhood SBP. Methods: Brachial SBP was measured for 75 children aged 3-6 years from the Manchester BabyGRO Study, using a Tensiomed(®)Arteriograph with a child-sized cuff. SBP quartiles were generated. Participants were born to mothers who had attended a specialised clinic, following identification of higher FGR risk based on abnormal maternal serology (pregnancy associated plasma protein-A, β-human chorionic gonadotrophin, α-fetoprotein, Inhibin-A). Antenatal ultrasound data at 23 weeks gestation were obtained. Uterine artery Doppler (UtAD) notching was assigned a rank (0=absent, 1=unilateral, 2=bilateral). Random forest (RF) is a machine learning approach that generates many independent, uncorrelated decision trees based on multiple variables. This was used to determine the relative importance of antenatal variables in prediction of upper quartile of childhood SBP. Variables included in the model were maternal body mass index (BMI), parity, ethnicity (black/white/asian/mixed), maternal SBP and diastolic BP (DBP), maternal serology relating to FGR risk, UtAD pulsatility index, resistance index and notching rank (all measures of uteroplacental blood flow resistance), placental size measurements, 23 week estimated fetal weight (EFW) centile, ∆23w EFW-birthweight centile and birthweight SDS. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated, providing an area under the curve (AUC). A variable of importance (VIP) score was calculated for each marker that was significant in the model. All analyses were conducted in R (version 3.6). Results: RF analysis demonstrated antenatal markers relating to FGR risk predict the upper quartile of childhood SBP with an AUC 0.97. The top five ranked variables were maternal DBP (VIP score 14.0), birthweight SDS (11.5), parity (9.9), notching rank (9.5) and ∆23w EFW-birthweight centile (9.1). Conclusion: Maternal and antenatal markers, as well as birthweight SDS are linked with the upper quartile of SBP at 3-6 years. Antenatal markers were within the top five ranked and could help identify those babies at risk of higher SBP in childhood.
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spelling pubmed-80898242021-05-06 Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure Perchard, Reena Garner, Terence Whatmore, Andrew James Stevens, Adam Higgins, Lucy Johnstone, Edward Clayton, Peter Ellis J Endocr Soc Pediatric Endocrinology Background: Being born small for gestational age (SGA) is linked with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP). Fetuses with growth restriction (FGR) may be either SGA or appropriate size for gestational age at birth. However, it is not known which factors contributing to size at birth influence the relationship with SBP. Aim. To determine whether antenatal markers of FGR can predict the upper quartile of childhood SBP. Methods: Brachial SBP was measured for 75 children aged 3-6 years from the Manchester BabyGRO Study, using a Tensiomed(®)Arteriograph with a child-sized cuff. SBP quartiles were generated. Participants were born to mothers who had attended a specialised clinic, following identification of higher FGR risk based on abnormal maternal serology (pregnancy associated plasma protein-A, β-human chorionic gonadotrophin, α-fetoprotein, Inhibin-A). Antenatal ultrasound data at 23 weeks gestation were obtained. Uterine artery Doppler (UtAD) notching was assigned a rank (0=absent, 1=unilateral, 2=bilateral). Random forest (RF) is a machine learning approach that generates many independent, uncorrelated decision trees based on multiple variables. This was used to determine the relative importance of antenatal variables in prediction of upper quartile of childhood SBP. Variables included in the model were maternal body mass index (BMI), parity, ethnicity (black/white/asian/mixed), maternal SBP and diastolic BP (DBP), maternal serology relating to FGR risk, UtAD pulsatility index, resistance index and notching rank (all measures of uteroplacental blood flow resistance), placental size measurements, 23 week estimated fetal weight (EFW) centile, ∆23w EFW-birthweight centile and birthweight SDS. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated, providing an area under the curve (AUC). A variable of importance (VIP) score was calculated for each marker that was significant in the model. All analyses were conducted in R (version 3.6). Results: RF analysis demonstrated antenatal markers relating to FGR risk predict the upper quartile of childhood SBP with an AUC 0.97. The top five ranked variables were maternal DBP (VIP score 14.0), birthweight SDS (11.5), parity (9.9), notching rank (9.5) and ∆23w EFW-birthweight centile (9.1). Conclusion: Maternal and antenatal markers, as well as birthweight SDS are linked with the upper quartile of SBP at 3-6 years. Antenatal markers were within the top five ranked and could help identify those babies at risk of higher SBP in childhood. Oxford University Press 2021-05-03 /pmc/articles/PMC8089824/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1210/jendso/bvab048.1443 Text en © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) ), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Pediatric Endocrinology
Perchard, Reena
Garner, Terence
Whatmore, Andrew James
Stevens, Adam
Higgins, Lucy
Johnstone, Edward
Clayton, Peter Ellis
Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure
title Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure
title_full Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure
title_fullStr Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure
title_full_unstemmed Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure
title_short Antenatal Markers Related to Fetal Growth Restriction Can Predict Childhood Systolic Blood Pressure
title_sort antenatal markers related to fetal growth restriction can predict childhood systolic blood pressure
topic Pediatric Endocrinology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8089824/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1210/jendso/bvab048.1443
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