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Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of h...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8092656/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33882066 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001211 |
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author | Moghadas, Seyed M. Vilches, Thomas N. Zhang, Kevin Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh Sah, Pratha Fitzpatrick, Meagan C. Galvani, Alison P. |
author_facet | Moghadas, Seyed M. Vilches, Thomas N. Zhang, Kevin Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh Sah, Pratha Fitzpatrick, Meagan C. Galvani, Alison P. |
author_sort | Moghadas, Seyed M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8–29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52–0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25–0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37–0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23–0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8092656 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80926562021-05-07 Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose Moghadas, Seyed M. Vilches, Thomas N. Zhang, Kevin Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh Sah, Pratha Fitzpatrick, Meagan C. Galvani, Alison P. PLoS Biol Research Article Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8–29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52–0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25–0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37–0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23–0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses. Public Library of Science 2021-04-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8092656/ /pubmed/33882066 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001211 Text en © 2021 Moghadas et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Moghadas, Seyed M. Vilches, Thomas N. Zhang, Kevin Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh Sah, Pratha Fitzpatrick, Meagan C. Galvani, Alison P. Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose |
title | Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose |
title_full | Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose |
title_fullStr | Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose |
title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose |
title_short | Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose |
title_sort | evaluation of covid-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8092656/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33882066 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001211 |
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