Cargando…

Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose

Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of h...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Moghadas, Seyed M., Vilches, Thomas N., Zhang, Kevin, Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh, Sah, Pratha, Fitzpatrick, Meagan C., Galvani, Alison P.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8092656/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33882066
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001211
_version_ 1783687674628931584
author Moghadas, Seyed M.
Vilches, Thomas N.
Zhang, Kevin
Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh
Sah, Pratha
Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.
Galvani, Alison P.
author_facet Moghadas, Seyed M.
Vilches, Thomas N.
Zhang, Kevin
Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh
Sah, Pratha
Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.
Galvani, Alison P.
author_sort Moghadas, Seyed M.
collection PubMed
description Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8–29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52–0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25–0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37–0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23–0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8092656
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-80926562021-05-07 Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose Moghadas, Seyed M. Vilches, Thomas N. Zhang, Kevin Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh Sah, Pratha Fitzpatrick, Meagan C. Galvani, Alison P. PLoS Biol Research Article Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8–29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52–0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25–0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37–0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23–0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses. Public Library of Science 2021-04-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8092656/ /pubmed/33882066 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001211 Text en © 2021 Moghadas et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Moghadas, Seyed M.
Vilches, Thomas N.
Zhang, Kevin
Nourbakhsh, Shokoofeh
Sah, Pratha
Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.
Galvani, Alison P.
Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
title Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
title_full Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
title_fullStr Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
title_short Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
title_sort evaluation of covid-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8092656/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33882066
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001211
work_keys_str_mv AT moghadasseyedm evaluationofcovid19vaccinationstrategieswithadelayedseconddose
AT vilchesthomasn evaluationofcovid19vaccinationstrategieswithadelayedseconddose
AT zhangkevin evaluationofcovid19vaccinationstrategieswithadelayedseconddose
AT nourbakhshshokoofeh evaluationofcovid19vaccinationstrategieswithadelayedseconddose
AT sahpratha evaluationofcovid19vaccinationstrategieswithadelayedseconddose
AT fitzpatrickmeaganc evaluationofcovid19vaccinationstrategieswithadelayedseconddose
AT galvanialisonp evaluationofcovid19vaccinationstrategieswithadelayedseconddose