Weight gain from early to middle adulthood increases the risk of incident asthma later in life in the United States: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Data describing the effects of weight change across adulthood on asthma are important for the prevention of asthma. This study aimed to investigate the association between weight change from early to middle adulthood and risk of incident asthma. METHODS: Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we performed a nationally retrospective cohort study of the U.S. general population. A total of 20,771 people aged 40–74 years with recalled weight at young and middle adulthood were included in the cohort. Four weight change groups were categorized: stable non-obesity, non-obesity to obesity, obesity to non-obesity, and stable obesity. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) relating weight change to incident asthma over 10 years of follow-up were calculated using Cox models adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: Compared with the stable non-obesity group, the HRs of incident asthma were 1.63 (95% CI = 1.29 to 2.07, P < 0.001) for the non-obesity to obesity group, 1.41 (95% CI = 0.97 to 2.05, P = 0.075) for stable obesity group, and 1.21 (95% CI = 0.41 to 3.62, P = 0.730) for the obesity to non-obesity group. In addition, participants who gained more than 20 kg from young to middle adulthood had a HR of 1.53 (95% CI = 1.15 to 2.03, P = 0.004), compared with those whose weight remained stable (weight change within 2.5 kg). CONCLUSIONS: Weight gain from early to middle adulthood was associated with higher risk of incident asthma as compared to those who maintained normal weight. Thus, maintaining normal weight throughout adulthood might be important for the primary prevention of adult-onset asthma. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-021-01735-7.