Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Following initial declines, in mid 2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the US and Europe. As COVID19 disease control efforts are re-intensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventio...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Monod, Mélodie, Blenkinsop, Alexandra, Xi, Xiaoyue, Hebert, Daniel, Bershan, Sivan, Tietze, Simon, Baguelin, Marc, Bradley, Valerie C., Chen, Yu, Coupland, Helen, Filippi, Sarah, Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan, McManus, Martin, Mellan, Thomas, Gandy, Axel, Hutchinson, Michael, Unwin, H. Juliette T, van Elsland, Sabine L., Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Weber, Sebastian, Zhu, Harrison, Bezancon, Anne, Ferguson, Neil M., Mishra, Swapnil, Flaxman, Seth, Bhatt, Samir, Ratmann, Oliver
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2021
Materias:
Research Articles
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8101272/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33531384
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372
Descripción
Sumario:Following initial declines, in mid 2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the US and Europe. As COVID19 disease control efforts are re-intensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the US and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20-49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one, and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20-49 in the US. Targeting interventions – including transmission-blocking vaccines – to adults aged 20-49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

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