Simulation of Transit Transportation along the Northern Sea Route under Climate Change

The article examines the problems and development prospects for the international transit of goods along the NSR. The existing restrictions on increasing freight traffic up to 80 million tons per year declared in program documents are identified. An option for its enhancement based on the domestic fleet of Arctic cargo ships is proposed. The article summarizes the main shortcomings of earlier studies assessing the transit capabilities of the NSR. A model for assessing the optimal number of ships for the transportation of goods is proposed taking into account climatic, physical-geographical, technological, and temporal constraints and risks. Within the framework of the model, the cost of goods transportation was estimated for implementing two scenarios of transit traffic.