An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China

In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020–08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the repro...

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Autores principales: Zhu, Wen-jing, Shen, Shou-feng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8105082/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33996402
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289
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author Zhu, Wen-jing
Shen, Shou-feng
author_facet Zhu, Wen-jing
Shen, Shou-feng
author_sort Zhu, Wen-jing
collection PubMed
description In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020–08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China.
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spelling pubmed-81050822021-05-10 An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China Zhu, Wen-jing Shen, Shou-feng Results Phys Article In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020–08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China. The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021-06 2021-05-08 /pmc/articles/PMC8105082/ /pubmed/33996402 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289 Text en © 2021 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Zhu, Wen-jing
Shen, Shou-feng
An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
title An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
title_full An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
title_fullStr An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
title_full_unstemmed An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
title_short An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
title_sort improved sir model describing the epidemic dynamics of the covid-19 in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8105082/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33996402
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289
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