Relationships between emissions of toxic airborne molecules and type 1 diabetes incidence in children: An ecologic study

BACKGROUND: Type 1 diabetes originates from gene-environment interactions, with increasing incidence over time. AIM: To identify correlates of childhood type 1 diabetes in European countries using an ecological approach. Several environmental variables potentially influencing the onset of type 1 diabetes have been previously evaluated. However, the relationships between epidemiologic data and exposure to toxic airborne molecules are scarcely studied. METHODS: We employed an ecological model to explore, in a wide time period (1990-2018), associations between type 1 diabetes incidence in 19 European countries (systematic literature review) and the nationwide production of five widely diffused air pollutants: particulate matter < 10 μm (PM10), nitrogen oxides (NO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulphur oxide (SO(2)), and ammonia. RESULTS: Data confirm a raising incidence of type 1 diabetes in 18 out of 19 explored countries. The average difference (last vs first report, all countries) was +6.9 × 100000/year, with values ranging from -1.4 (Germany) to +16.6 (Sweden) per 100000/year. Although the overall production of pollutants decreased progressively from 1990 to 2018, type 1 diabetes incidence was positively associated with the nationwide emissions of PM10, VOCs, and NO but not with those of SO2 and ammonia. Type 1 diabetes incidence was significantly higher in countries with high emissions than in those with low emissions of PM10 (27.5 ± 2.4 vs 14.6 ± 2.4 × 100000 residents, respectively), VOCs (24.5 ± 4.4 vs 13.2 ± 1.7 × 100000 residents, respectively), and NO (26.6 ± 3 vs 13.4 ± 2.4 × 100000 residents, respectively), but not of SO(2) or ammonia. CONCLUSION: Evidence justify further studies to explore better links between long-term air quality and type 1 diabetes onset at the individual level, which should include exposures during pregnancy. In this respect, type 1 diabetes could be, at least in part, a preventable condition. Thus, primary prevention policies acting through a marked abatement of pollutant emissions might attenuate future type 1 diabetes incidence throughout Europe.