Machine learning based on clinico-biological features integrated (18)F-FDG PET/CT radiomics for distinguishing squamous cell carcinoma from adenocarcinoma of lung

PURPOSE: To develop and validate a clinico-biological features and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) radiomic-based nomogram via machine learning for the pretherapy prediction of discriminating between adenocarcinoma (ADC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: A total of 315 NSCLC patients confirmed by postoperative pathology between January 2017 and June 2019 were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into the training (n = 220) and validation (n = 95) sets. Preoperative clinical factors, serum tumor markers, and PET, and CT radiomic features were analyzed. Prediction models were developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. The performance of the models was evaluated and compared by the area under receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and DeLong test. The clinical utility of the models was determined via decision curve analysis (DCA). Then, a nomogram was developed based on the model with the best predictive efficiency and clinical utility and was validated using the calibration plots. RESULTS: In total, 122 SCC and 193 ADC patients were enrolled in this study. Four independent prediction models were separately developed to differentiate SCC from ADC using clinical factors-tumor markers, PET radiomics, CT radiomics, and their combination. The DeLong test and DCA showed that the Combined Model, consisting of 2 clinical factors, 2 tumor markers, 7 PET radiomics, and 3 CT radiomic parameters, held the highest predictive efficiency and clinical utility in predicting the NSCLC subtypes compared with the use of these parameters alone in both the training and validation sets (AUCs (95% CIs) = 0.932 (0.900–0.964), 0.901 (0.840–0.957), respectively) (p < 0.05). A quantitative nomogram was subsequently constructed using the independently risk factors from the Combined Model. The calibration curves indicated a good consistency between the actual observations and nomogram predictions. CONCLUSION: This study presents an integrated clinico-biologico-radiological nomogram that can be accurately and noninvasively used for the individualized differentiation SCC from ADC in NSCLC, thereby assisting in clinical decision making for precision treatment. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00259-020-05065-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.