Interim [(18)F]FDG PET/CT can predict response to anti-PD-1 treatment in metastatic melanoma

PURPOSE: In an attempt to identify biomarkers that can reliably predict long-term outcomes to immunotherapy in metastatic melanoma, we investigated the prognostic role of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT, performed at baseline and early during the course of anti-PD-1 treatment. METHODS: Twenty-five patients with stage IV melanoma, scheduled for treatment with PD-1 inhibitors, were enrolled in the study (pembrolizumab, n = 8 patients; nivolumab, n = 4 patients; nivolumab/ipilimumab, 13 patients). [(18)F]FDG PET/CT was performed before the start of treatment (baseline PET/CT) and after the initial two cycles of PD-1 blockade administration (interim PET/CT). Seventeen patients underwent also a third PET/CT scan after administration of four cycles of treatment. Evaluation of patients’ response by means of PET/CT was performed after application of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) 1999 criteria and the PET Response Evaluation Criteria for IMmunoTherapy (PERCIMT). Response to treatment was classified into 4 categories: complete metabolic response (CMR), partial metabolic response (PMR), stable metabolic disease (SMD), and progressive metabolic disease (PMD). Patients were further grouped into two groups: those demonstrating metabolic benefit (MB), including patients with SMD, PMR, and CMR, and those demonstrating no MB (no-MB), including patients with PMD. Moreover, patterns of [(18)F]FDG uptake suggestive of radiologic immune-related adverse events (irAEs) were documented. Progression-free survival (PFS) was measured from the date of interim PET/CT until disease progression or death from any cause. RESULTS: Median follow-up from interim PET/CT was 24.2 months (19.3–41.7 months). According to the EORTC criteria, 14 patients showed MB (1 CMR, 6 PMR, and 7 SMD), while 11 patients showed no-MB (PMD). Respectively, the application of the PERCIMT criteria revealed that 19 patients had MB (1 CMR, 6 PMR, and 12 SMD), and 6 of them had no-MB (PMD). With regard to PFS, no significant difference was observed between patients with MB and no-MB on interim PET/CT according to the EORTC criteria (p = 0.088). In contrary, according to the PERCIMT criteria, patients demonstrating MB had a significantly longer PFS than those showing no-MB (p = 0.045). The emergence of radiologic irAEs (n = 11 patients) was not associated with a significant survival benefit. Regarding the sub-cohort undergoing also a third PET/CT, 14/17 patients (82%) showed concordant responses and 3/17 (18%) had a mismatch of response assessment between interim and late PET/CT. CONCLUSION: PET/CT-based response of metastatic melanoma to PD-1 blockade after application of the recently proposed PERCIMT criteria is significantly correlated with PFS. This highlights the potential ability of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT for early stratification of response to anti-PD-1 agents, a finding with possible significant clinical and financial implications. Further studies including larger numbers of patients are necessary to validate these results. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-020-05137-7.